摘要
2024年11月,美国将举行第60届总统选举,其选举结果和国内政治形势变化将对当前的国际政治经济格局、国际安全环境等造成深远影响,加速百年变局的历史演进。老人治国、民主倒退、霸权衰落使得美国很难“再次伟大”,其内政和外交都会经历较长的阵痛期。2024年美国大选的选举议题、当前及下一届政府政策都将影响中美关系,其对华竞争战略大概率将相对固化并长期存在。随着美国2024年大选的日益临近,特别是存在特朗普卷土重来的可能,欧美关系将面临新的动荡和艰难重塑。2024年美国总统大选很难带来美俄关系的根本改善,俄外交将继续坚持“转向东方”的政策,争取摆脱西方围堵的不利处境。日本高度关注2024年美国大选动向,重视预先布局以管理美国政治变动及权力交接对其带来的影响。鉴于此,本刊特邀请6位国际问题研究知名专家撰文,从美国民主的倒退与霸权的未来、2024年美国大选与中美关系、欧美关系重塑、美国总统大选背景下俄罗斯的对外政策、日本对美国大选的认知与应对、美国大选对国际政治经济及安全环境的影响角度,对国际形势及大国关系的变化进行分析和预判。
As the United States gears up for its 60th presidential election in November 2024,the election results and changing US domestic politics will have a profound impact on the current global political,economic,security landscape and so on,likely to increase the momentum towards changes unseen in a century.Since it is very difficult for the US to be great again due to gerontocracy,democratic backsliding and hegemonic decline,the US is likely to experience a prolonged period of uncertainty and chaos in both foreign and domestic affairs.Since the issues in the 2024 general election and the policies of the current and the next administrations will also impact China-US relations,US competition with China is very likely to remain in place for the long run.As the election draws near and given the increased chance of a second term for Trump,US-European relations are in for instability and even frictions.As the 2024 election is not likely to bring fundamental changes in US-Russia relations,Russia will continue its“turn to the east”policy to free itself from Western containment.Japan,which is also closely watching the 2024 US election,has been making advance moves to manage the potential shock that may result from changes in US politics and transition in government.In light of this,we have invited a panel of six renowned experts to offer their take on international relations and great power relations,addressing in particular the following issues:US democratic backsliding and the future of US hegemony,the impact of the 2024 US general election on China-US relations,the future of US-European relations,Russia’s foreign policy in the context of the US general election,Japanese perceptions and policy options in light of the US general election,and the impact of the US general election on international political,economic,and security affairs.
作者
谢韬
刁大明
冯仲平
孙壮志
吴怀中
林宏宇
Xie Tao;Diao Daming;Feng Zhongping;Sun Zhuangzhi;Wu Huaizhong;Lin Hongyu
出处
《国际论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第5期3-41,156,共40页
International Forum
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地复旦大学美国研究中心重大项目“美国国内政治大变局及其对中美战略博弈的影响研究”(立项号:22JJD810005)的阶段性成果。
