摘要
基于“水资源-能源”纽带关系视角,利用Vensim PLE软件构建因果关系流图以分析西北地区水资源与能源之间的关联,设定常规发展、节水节能政策深入落实、节水节能技术改进、能源产业结构改善等情景,并采用系统动力学模型模拟比较2022—2030年GDP、单位能源生产用水量、万元GDP能源消费量和能源紧缺程度4项指标在不同情景下的发展趋势。结果表明:西北地区经济水平将持续提升,单位能源生产用水量、万元GDP能源消费量、能源紧缺程度将持续下降;与常规发展情景相比,其他情景中西北地区GDP、能源生产用水效率的提升幅度和万元GDP能源消费量、能源紧缺程度的下降幅度将更大;节水节能政策深入落实对万元GDP能源消费量、能源紧缺程度改进效果最为明显,节水节能技术改进则对单位能源生产用水量的抑制作用较为明显,能源产业结构改善能兼顾对单位能源生产用水量、万元GDP能源消费量、能源紧缺程度的约束效果。提出以节水节能政策深入落实、节水节能技术改进、能源产业结构升级等为主导的能源产业可持续发展路径,以促进西北地区能源产业的可持续发展。
Based on the perspective of“water-energy”nexus,the cause-and-effect flow diagram was constructed with Vensim PLE software to analyze the correlation between water resources and energy resources in Northwest China.Scenarios of conventional development,scenario of in-depth implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies,scenario of technological improvement of water-saving and energy-saving and scenario of improvement of energy industrial structure were set.The system dynamics model is used to simulate and compare the development trends of four indicators,GDP,water consumption per unit of energy production,energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP and energy scarcity level in 2022-2030 under different scenarios.The conclusions are as follows:based on the current development trends of the five northwestern provinces and regions,the economic level will continue to improve,and the water consumption per unit of energy production,energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,and energy scarcity level will continue to decline.Compared with the conventional development scenario,in the other scenarios,the GDP and water use efficiency of energy production in Northwest China will increase more,and the energy consumption intensity and energy scarcity level will decrease more.Among various scenarios,the implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies has the most significant improvement effect on energy scarcity level and energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,while technological improvement of water-saving and energy-saving has the most significant inhibitory effect on the water consumption per unit of energy production.The improvement of the energy industry structure can also balance the constraint effect on the water consumption per unit of energy production,energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,and energy scarcity level.Finally,a development path for the energy industry is proposed,with the deepening implementation of water-saving and energy-saving policies,technological improvement of water-saving a
作者
吴兆丹
谈心阳
刘烨宁
吴竹雅
WU Zhaodan;TAN Xinyang;LIU Yening;WU Zhuya(School of Economics and Finance,Hohai University,Changzhou 213200,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Coastal Development and Protection,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;China Merchants Bank Jinan Branch,Jinan 250012,China;School of Big Data and Statistics,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《水利经济》
北大核心
2024年第5期9-19,35,共12页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
江苏省社会科学基金项目(23GLC003,22GLB018)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B230207063)。
