摘要
为了评估CMA-CPSv3模式对影响我国夏季降水的两个高压系统-南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的预测能力,利用该模式2001-2020年3月、5月起报的回报结果和ERA5再分析数据,首先评估了该模式对两个高压系统特征指数的预测能力,然后分析了不同起报时间对东亚地区夏季环流系统的预测能力,最后对比了两个高压系统预测同好年和同差年夏季环流系统、水汽输送特征的差异以及对我国夏季降水的影响,并探讨了两个高压系统预测偏差的可能原因。研究表明:(1)CMA-CPSv3模式对西太副高和南亚高压的平均脊线位置的预测效果最好,预测的强度指数和面积指数明显偏强、偏大;与3月起报相比,5月起报的预测结果对西太副高的预测有一定的提高。(2)CMA-CPSv3模式较好地预测了100 hPa和500hPa环流形势,其中温度场和风场的预测效果较好,但预测的南亚高压和西太副高的范围整体偏强。(3)预测的两个高压系统同好年和同差年,两个高压脊线位置预测较好,预测的面积和强度均明显偏强,同好年的预测偏差较小;能够较好地预测出东亚地区水汽通量的空间分布和我国夏季降水分布格局。(4)预测的两个高压系统所在经度区域的上升运动较ERA5结果偏弱,可能是引起预测的南亚高压和西太副高范围偏大、强度偏强的原因之一。
In order to evaluate the predictive simulation ability of the CMA-CPSv3 climate prediction model(hereafter CMA-CPSv3 model)on two high-pressure systems,the South Asian High and the Western Pacific Subtropical High,that affect summer precipitation in China,the return simulated data by the CMA-CPSv3 model starting in March and May from 2001 to 2020 and ERA5 reanalysis data were used to firstly evaluate the model’s predictive ability on the characteristic indices of the two high-pressure systems,and then analyze the predictive ability of the differences in predicting the summer circulation system and water vapor characteristics between two high-pressure systems in the same good year and the same bad year,as well as their impact on summer precipitation in China,were compared.The possible reasons for the stronger prediction of the two high-pressure systems were explored.The main conclusions were as follows:(1)The CMA-CPSv3 model has the best prediction effect on the average ridge position of the West Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high,with the predicted results of the intensity index and area index being significantly stronger or larger;Compared with the forecast starting in March,the forecast results starting in May have a certain improvement in the prediction of the West Pacific subtropical high.(2)The CMA-CPSv3 model has well predicted the circulation situation at 100 hPa and 500 hPa,with good predictions for temperature and wind fields.However,the predicted range of the South Asian High and the West Pacific Subtropical High is generally stronger.(3)The predicted positions of the ridge line of the two high-pressure systems in the same good year and the same poor year are relatively good,and the predicted areas and intensities are significantly stronger.The prediction deviation for the same good year is relatively small.It can better predict the spatial distribution of water vapor flux in East Asia and the distribution pattern of summer precipitation in China.(4)The upward motion of the predicted tw
作者
陈明升
宋敏红
梁潇云
裴宇菲
吴统文
CHEN Mingsheng;SONG Minhong;LIANG Xiaoyun;PEI Yufei;WU Tongwen(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology/Sichuan Key Laboratory of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment.Chengdu 610225,Sichuan,China;Earth System Numerical Prediction Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Xiangyang Meteorological Service,Xiangyang 441021,Hubei,China)
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1138-1151,共14页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心模式发展专项(CXFZ2022M001)
中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心数值预报关键技术研发专项。
关键词
CMA-CPSv3模式
预测能力评估
南亚高压
西太副高
特征指数
CMA-CPSv3 model
simulation capability assessment
South Asian High pressure
West Pacific subtropical high
characteristic index
