摘要
桔梗Platycodongrandiflorum(Jacq.)A.DC.作为最常用的大宗药材,在药用、食用和化妆品领域中都有着重要价值,市场需求量逐年增多,具有良好的开发前景。本研究以中国境内桔梗为研究对象,基于403条分布点和8个环境因子变量,运用参数优化后的Maxent模型探究未来气候条件下桔梗的适生分布情况。研究表明Maxent参数在特征组合(featurecombination,FC)为LQPH(L:线性特征;Q:二次型特征;P:片段化特征;H:乘积型特征),调控倍频(regularizationmultiplier,RM)为2.1时,模型模拟效果最佳,受试者曲线下面积(areaundercurve,AUC)为0.901;模型预测显示在当前气候条件下,桔梗广泛分布于中国的28个省份,适生区面积达2337419.98km^(2);在未来气候变化影响下,桔梗的适生区面积呈现降低趋势,分布中心整体呈现向北和向东偏移的趋势;当前三大主产区内桔梗的分布面积受气候变化影响的变化趋势不同,总体表现为在内蒙古赤峰的未来适生分布面积增加,而在共享社会经济路径5-8.5(shared socioeconomicpathways,SSP)排放情景下山东淄博和安徽亳州、太和县的未来适生分布面积减少甚至消失。建议维持和保护好适宜桔梗生长的保留区的生态环境和种质资源,增加在桔梗扩增区中的栽培研究,为后续拓展桔梗种植打下基础,由此促进桔梗资源的保护和可持续发展。
Platycodon grandiflorum(Jacq.)A.DC is one of the most commonly used bulk medicinal herbs.It has important value in the fields of medicine,food and cosmetics,and its market demand is increasing year by year,and it has a good development prospect.In this study,based on 403 distribution records and 8 environmental variables,we used Maxent model to predict the potential distribution of P.grandiflorum under climate change.The results showed that the model simulation effect was the best when the Maxent parameter was FC(feature combination)=LQPH(L:linear features;Q:quadratic features;P:product features;H:hinge features)and RM(regularization multiplier)=2.1,AUC(area under curve)=0.901,and the model prediction showed that P grandiflorum was widely distributed in 28 provinces of China under the current climate conditions,with a suitable area of 2337419.98 km^(2).Under the influence of climate change in the future,the area of suitable habitat of P.grandiflorum showed a decreasing trend,and the distribution center as a whole showed a trend of northward and eastward shift.The distribution area of P.grandiflorum in the three main producing areas is affected by climate change,and the overall trend is that the future suitable distribution area of Chifeng in Inner Mongolia increases,while the future suitable distribution area of Zibo in Shandong and Taihe,Bozhou in Anhui decreases or even disappears under the SSP5-8.5 scenario(shared socioeconomic pathways).It is suggested to maintain and protect the ecological environment and germplasm resources of the reserved area suitable for the growth of P.grandiflorum,and increase the cultivation research in the expansion area of P grandiflorum,so as to lay a foundation for the subsequent expansion of P grandiflorum planting and to promote the protection and sustainable development of P.grandiflorum resources.
作者
张玉洁
余函纹
郑昭焕
蒋超
刘娟
查良平
池秀莲
桂双英
ZHANG Yu-jie;YU Han-wen;ZHENG Zhao-huan;JIANG Chao;LIU Juan;ZHA Liang-ping;CHI Xiu-lian;GUI Shuang-ying(College of Pharmacy,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012,China;Center for Xin'an Medicine and Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine of IHM,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012,China;State Key Laboratory for Quality Ensurance and Sustainable Use of Dao-di Herbs,National Resource Center for Chinese Materia Medica,China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,Beijing 100700,China)
出处
《药学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第9期2625-2633,共9页
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金区域联合基金项目(U21A20406)
中国中医科学院科技创新工程项目(CI2021A03908)。
关键词
桔梗
Maxent模型
参数优化
气候变化
适生区变化
Platycodon grandijflorum
Maxent
optimizing parameter
climate change
suitable areas change
