摘要
加快构建具有韧性的现代金融体系是推动中国金融高质量发展、助力金融强国目标实现的制度支撑与安全保障。文章基于2007—2021年全球46个主要经济体金融体系韧性的典型事实,以外部金融冲击为切入点,实证检验全球金融周期对金融体系韧性的溢出效应及其传导机制。研究发现:(1)全球金融周期对金融体系韧性具有显著的负向溢出效应,在处理内生性问题和进行一系列稳健性检验后此结论依然成立;(2)机制检验发现,全球金融周期可以通过国际大宗商品价格渠道、国际资本流动性渠道和投资者风险情绪传染渠道对金融体系韧性产生负向影响;(3)异质性分析的结果表明,该负向溢出效应在发达经济体、金融开放度高及实行固定汇率制的经济体中更强;(4)进一步将宏观审慎政策纳入研究框架后的实证结果显示,在全球金融周期的风险上升阶段,严格的宏观审慎政策干预可以有效抑制全球金融周期对金融体系韧性产生的不利影响。研究结论为新形势下中国有效防范和化解输入型金融风险提供理论基础和经验证据,也为加快建设金融强国和构建中国特色现代金融体系提供有益政策启示。
Accelerating the construction of a resilient modern financial system is an important support and security guarantee to promote China's high-quality financial development and help the realization of the goal of a financial power.Based on the typical facts of the financial system resilience of 46 major economies in the world in 2007-2021,the article empirically examines the spillover effect of the global financial cycle on the financial system resilience and its transmission mechanism with external financial shocks as the entry point.The study finds that(1)the global financial cycle has a significant negative spillover effect on financial system resilience,and this conclusion still holds after dealing with endogeneity issues and conducting a series of robustness tests;(2)the mechanism test finds that the global financial cycle can negatively affect financial system resilience through the international commodity price channel,the international capital liquidity channel and the investor risk sentiment contagion channel;(3)The results of the heterogeneity analysis suggest that this negative spillover effect is stronger in advanced economies,those with high financial openness and those with a fixed exchange rate regime;(4)The empirical results after further incorporating macroprudential policies into the research framework show that in the risky upturn phase of the global financial cycle,strict macroprudential policy interventions can effectively inhibit the negative impact of the global financial cycle on the resilience of the financial system.The conclusions of the study provide a theoretical basis and empirical evidence for China to effectively prevent and resolve imported financial risks under the new situation,and also provide useful policy insights for accelerating the construction of a financial power and building a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics.
作者
徐浩
朱小梅
Xu Hao;Zhu Xiaomei
出处
《南方经济》
北大核心
2024年第9期57-74,共18页
South China Journal of Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(19BJL105)
教育部人文社会科学项目(19YJC790100)资助。
关键词
全球金融周期
金融体系韧性
宏观审慎政策
金融强国
Financial System Resilience
Global Financial Cycle
Macroprudential Policy
Financial Power
