摘要
随着社交媒体的兴起,其对上市公司财务透明度的影响日益受到关注.本文旨在探讨社交媒体,特别是东方财富股吧的发帖活动,如何影响上市公司的财务造假行为.借助东方财富股吧发贴数据,通过构建关于财务造假被惩处的双变量probit回归模型,本文发现股吧发帖数目与造假发生的概率成反比、与造假被发现的概率成正比,即社交媒体可能起到抑制财务造假以及揭露财务造假的双重作用.为了应对内生性问题,本文使用了工具变量法.进一步,基于"造假三角(fraud triangle)"理论,本文提出并验证了股吧发帖活动通过降低潜在造假机会和增加合理化造假难度来降低财务造假可能性的两条路径.异质性分析揭示了负面帖子和高级用户发布的帖子在抑制财务造假方面更为有效.本研究不仅丰富了对社交媒体如何在公司治理中发挥作用的理解,也为监管机构如何利用社交媒体进行财务监管提供了借鉴.
With the rise of social media,its impact on the financial transparency of publicly listed companies has received increasing attention.This study investigates how social media,particularly posting activity on East Money's stock message boards,affects the financial fraud behavior of listed companies.Utilizing data from East Money's stock message boards and a bivariate probit regression model,the study finds that the number of posts on the message boards is inversely related to the probability of fraud occurrence and positively related to the probability of fraud detection.This finding indicates that social media may play a dual role in both deterring financial fraud and uncovering it.To address endogeneity issues,the study employs an instrumental variable approach.Additionally,based on the"fraud triangle"theory,the paper proposes and validates two mechanisms through which message board posting activity reduces the likelihood of financial fraud:By decreasing potential opportunities for fraud and increasing the difficulty of rationalizing fraud.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that negative posts and posts by senior users are more effective in curbing financial fraud.This research not only enhances the understanding of how social media can function in corporate governance but also provides insights for regulatory authorities on leveraging social media for financial supervision.
作者
张维
李奕
ZHANG Wei;LI Yi(Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(CACMS),Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《计量经济学报》
CSCD
2024年第4期899-923,共25页
China Journal of Econometrics
基金
国家自然科学基金(71790594)
中国博士后科学基金(2023M730240)。
关键词
社交媒体
股吧
财务造假
公司治理
social media
stock message boards
financial fraud
corporate gover-nance
