摘要
煤炭是我国经济建设中的重要能源,其市场供需稳定有着不可忽视的重要性,准确预测我国煤炭产量有助于国家能源政策的制定。故选取2003—2023年国有原煤产量历史数据以构建预测数据库,并介绍了预测煤炭产量的6种传统预测方法。分别采用6种方法进行对应2024年的国有原煤产量预测,对比分析各方法的预测准确程度。综合各研究结果给出了2024年国有原煤产量预测区间,同时分析得出加权移动平均法和一元线性回归预测法具有更好的拟合效果。
Coal plays an essential role in China′s economic growth,with the stability of its market supply and demand being critically important.Accurate predictions of China′s coal output are crucial to shaping national energy strategies.Historical data on state-owned raw coal production from 2003 to 2023 is utilized to create a forecasting database.Moreover,six traditional forecasting techniques are introduced and employed to estimate the state-owned raw coal production for 2024,compared with their predictive accuracy.By synthesizing the findings,a forecast range for the state-owned raw coal production in 2024 is established.It is concluded that the weighted moving average and univariate linear regression methods yield the most accurate and reliable results.
作者
周亚菲
俞白云
王鹏
徐昆昆
洪小宾
ZHOU Yafei;YU Baiyun;WANG Peng;XU Kunkun;HONG Xiaobin(Korla Jinchuan Mining Co.,Ltd.,Korla 841000,China;School of Geology and Mining Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830000,China)
出处
《煤炭技术》
CAS
2024年第9期288-291,共4页
Coal Technology
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务(2023B01010)。
关键词
原煤产量
多元数据
线性回归
预测分析
可靠性检验
raw coal production
multivariate data
linear regression
predictive analysis
reliability testing
