摘要
甲烷温室效应远远超过CO_(2),对CH_(4)的减排研究刻不容缓。农业活动产生的CH_(4)对气候变化产生着重要影响。采用IPCC推荐排放因子法对河北省农业源CH_(4)排放量进行估算,结合核密度法及Arc GIS的制图功能分析CH_(4)排放时空分布,在此基础上采用多元回归分析影响排放的主要因素,以找到与设计精准控排对象和措施。结果表明:2012年农业源CH_(4)年排放总量最高,达到81.58万t,观察期年排放总量随时间发展呈下降趋势,这与养殖业的绿色发展密切相关。2020年农业源CH_(4)排放高水平区域主要在唐山市和承德市,低水平区域仅有廊坊市,农业源CH_(4)排放差距较大。因素分析中,人口的教育水平对农业源CH_(4)排放具有显著的抑制作用,农业产值、农业耕地面积、农业养殖规模和农业从业人口对农业源CH_(4)排放具有显著影响。最后,针对研究结果提出发展特色产业、提升农民素质、提高科技水平、加强扶持政策的建议。
The CH_(4) greenhouse effect far exceeds that of CO_(2),and the study of CH_(4) emission reduction cannot be delayed.CH_(4) from agricultural activities has an important impact on climate change.The IPCC recommended emission factor method was used to estimate the CH_(4) emission from agricultural sources in Hebei Province,and the temporal and spatial distribution of CH_(4) emissions was analyzed by combining the nuclear density method and the mapping function of Arc GIS,and the main factors affecting emissions were analyzed by multiple regression to find and design precise emission control objects and measures.The results showed that:In 2012,the total annual emission of CH_(4) from agricultural sources was the highest,reaching 815,800 tons,and the total annual emissions during the observation period showed a downward trend with time,which was closely related to the green development of aquaculture.In 2020,the high-level areas of CH_(4) emissions from agricultural source were mainly in Tangshan City and Chengde City,and the low-level area was only Langfang City,and the gap of CH_(4) emissions from agricultural source was large.In the analysis of factors,the education level of the population had a significant inhibitory effect on the CH_(4) emission from agricultural sources,and the agricultural output value,agricultural land area,agricultural breeding scale and agricultural employment population had a significant impact on the CH_(4) emissions from agricultural sources.Finally,according to the research results,suggestions are put forward to develop characteristic industries,improve the quality of farmers,improve the level of science and technology,and strengthen support policies.
作者
单永娟
尚禹彤
张家俊
SHAN Yongjuan;SHANG Yutong;ZHANG Jiajun(College of Urban Geology and Engineering,Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China;Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Intelligent Development and Control of Underground Built Environment,Shijiazhuang,Hebei 050000,China)
出处
《邢台学院学报》
2024年第3期181-192,共12页
Journal of Xingtai University
关键词
甲烷
排放估算
时空分析
影响因素
methane
emission estimation
spatial-temporal analysis
influencing factor
