摘要
在城市体系视角下,城市人口规模呈现典型的“中心-外围”空间结构特征。中心城市人口集聚对外围城市人口增长既存在虹吸效应,也存在溢出效应,其具体结果取决于集聚力和扩散力的动态平衡,因而有必要基于多尺度城市体系视角进行考察,探索城市人口有序增长和城市体系合理优化的可行路径,为考察城市体系下城市间人口增长的空间效应提供有益参考,实现“大中小城市协调发展”的城市化战略。本研究利用中国1990—2020年城市面板数据,基于全国、省域和城市群层面的多尺度城市体系构建包含空间效应的计量模型,实证探讨中心城市人口集聚对外围城市人口增长的影响效应及地理范围。研究表明:第一,不同层面中心城市人口集聚对外围城市人口增长均存在显著的虹吸效应,经过更换因变量、更换估计方法和补充遗漏变量等一系列稳健性检验后结果仍然显著。第二,在全国和省域城市体系下,国家和省域中心城市人口集聚对东部县级市人口增长具有溢出效应,而对其他类型城市人口增长具有虹吸效应,且对内陆地级市的虹吸效应明显高于东部地级市;此外,国家中心城市人口集聚对高等级城市的虹吸效应最大。第三,在城市群城市体系下,长三角和珠三角城市群的中心城市人口集聚对外围城市人口增长具有显著的溢出效应,而京津冀、长江中游和成渝城市群存在显著的虹吸效应。第四,外围城市人口增长还会受到地理距离影响,加入地理距离后的模型回归结果显示中心城市人口集聚虹吸效应的地理范围主要在250公里范围之内,且呈现随着距离增加而递减的态势。为促进外围城市人口增长,既要科学认识中心城市的虹吸效应,注重发挥中心城市的溢出效应以释放其人口规模集聚红利;也需要外围城市主动融入城市体系,与中心城市建立较强的空间联系,以积
Urban population size presents a typical"center-periphery"spatial structure feature from the perspective of urban system.The population agglomeration of central cities has both a siphon effect and a spillover effect on the population growth of peripheral cities.The specific results depend on the dynamic balance of agglomeration and diffusion forces.Therefore,it is necessary to examine it from a multi-scale urban system perspective and propose feasible paths for orderly urban population growth and rational optimization of urban system,which can provide useful references for understanding the spatial effects of population growth between cities under the urban system,and help to achieve the urbanization strategy of"coordinated development of large,medium-sized and small cities".Based on urban panel data in China from 1990 to 2020 and the multi-scale urban systems at the national,provincial and urban agglomeration levels,this paper constructs an econometric model that includes spatial effects to empirically explore the impact of population agglomeration of central cities on population growth of peripheral cities and its geo⁃graphical scope.The results show that:firstly,population agglomeration of central cities in different levels have significant siphon effects on population growth of peripheral cities,and the results are still significant after a series of robustness tests,such as replacing the depended variables,replacing model estimation methods and supplementing missing variables,etc.Secondly,from the perspective of national and provin⁃cial urban systems,population agglomeration of national and provincial central cities has a spillover effect on the population growth of eastern county-level cities,while it has a siphon effect on the population growth of other types of cities.Siphon effect on prefecture level cities in the inland region is significantly higher than that of eastern cities.In addition,population agglomeration in national central cities has the greatest siphon effect on higher-level cities.Third
作者
杨晓军
YANG Xiaojun(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei,430073,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
北大核心
2024年第5期90-101,共12页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金项目:城市体系视角下人口增长的协同效应与空间格局优化研究(22BRK018)
国家社会科学基金项目:城市群战略下中心城市人口集聚的时空演变与空间效应研究(20BRK019)。
关键词
中心城市
外围城市
人口增长
城市体系
虹吸效应
Central Cities
Peripheral Cities
Population Growth
Urban System
Siphon Effect
