摘要
文章考虑了A市辖区面积、流动人口密度、涉稳人员密度、场所密度、警员类型等因素与案件产生速度、案件处理速度的关系.采用经济度量模型与多元拟合等方法分别建立案件的理想产生速率、案件理想处理时间、不同警员处理各类案件速率模型,并证明案件理想处理时间模型对不同警员处理各类案件速率模型的数据筛选定理,同时依据调整后的多重判定系数等指标以及大量A市随机数据检验,验证了以上三类模型具备较高拟合优度和适用性.文章将案件处理的平均等待时间作为评价警力配置优劣的依据,平均等待时间越短表明警力配置越充裕.结合多元拟合结果和M/M/s多站台排队论模型计算得到平均等待时间,并建立相应的目标函数和边界条件以计算最优人员配置.在A市算例中,缺编严重的A1、A5、A7派出所经过本文模型优化,在治安、打处等案件上综合减少了40%、64%、70%的等待时间,可以验证模型的有效性.
This paper is concerned with the relationship between the district area of city A,the density of floating population,the density of people involved in stability,the density of places,the type of police officers and the speed of case generation and case handling.The economic measurement model and multiple fitting methods were used to establish the ideal case generation rate,the ideal case processing time and the case rate models of different police officers,and prove the data screening theorem of the case ideal processing time model on the case rate models of different police officers,and at the same time,the adjusted multiple decision coefficient and a large number of random data of City A were tested.The above three types of models are verified to have high goodness of fit and applicability.In this paper,the average waiting time of case processing is used as the basis to evaluate the merits of police force allocation.The shorter the average waiting time,the more abundant the police force allocation.The average waiting time is calculated by combining the multivariate fitting results and M/M/s multi-station queuing theory model,and the corresponding objective function and boundary conditions are established to calculate the optimal staffing.In the example of city A,Al,A5 and A7 police stations with serious shortage of personnel have been optimized by the model in this paper,and the waiting time of public security,beating and other cases has been comprehensively reduced by 40%,64%and 70%,which can verify the effectiveness of the model.
作者
李寅清
杨永富
宋玉萍
李宁
LI Yin-qing;YANG Yong-fu;SONG Yu-ping;LI Ning(School of Mathematics,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2024年第8期223-236,共14页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家自然科学基金(12271140,12001162)。
关键词
警力配置
多站台排队论
经济度量模型
多元拟合
police staffing
multi-platform queuing theory
economic measurement models
multivariate fitting
