摘要
二战后德国通过转变经济发展方式创造“经济奇迹”,且伴随着一轮又一轮的管理创新高潮。“25年周期进化说”对中日美等国家的经济发展方式转变与人力资源管理创新之间的关系进行研究,并提出相应观点。文章首先通过回顾和分析近百年来德国经济发展和人力资源管理创新的历程,找出德国案例的周期性特征,其次推导出“25年周期进化说”的作用传导机制,最后利用瑞士洛桑管理学院历年发布的《国际人力资源竞争报告》合成人力资源管理创新指数,以此代表人力资源管理创新,用德国历史GDP数据生成GDP增长率转换指数,以其代表经济发展,利用统计性检验分析经济发展和人力资源管理创新之间的波动性特征和因果关系,并对两者未来的发展趋势进行预测,从实证分析的角度验证“25年周期进化说”的现实存在性,为进一步完善和丰富该假说的理论内涵奠定坚实的数理基础。
After World War Ⅱ,Germany created an"economic miracle"by transforming its economic development mode,which was accompanied by a wave of management innovation.The"25-year cycle evolution theory"studies the relationship between the transformation of economic development mode and human resource management innovation in China,Japan and the United States,and puts forward corresponding views.This paper first finds out the cyclical characteristics of German cases by reviewing and analyzing the history of German economic development and human resource management innovation in the past hundred years,then derives the transmission mechanism of the"25-year cycle evolution theory",and finally uses the International Human Resource Competition Report published by Lausanne School of Management in Switzerland over the years to synthesize the human resource management innovation index.On behalf of human resource management innovation,the historical GDP data of Germany is used to generate a GDP growth rate conversion index,which represents economic development,and statistical tests are used to analyze the volatility characteristics and causality between economic development and human resource management innovation,and to predict the future development trend of both.From the point of view of empirical analysis,the practical existence of the"25-year cycle evolution theory"is verified,which lays a solid mathematical foundation for further perfecting and enriching the theoretical connotation of this hypothesis.
作者
石嘉伟
SHI Jia-wei(Research Division of International Human Resources and International Cooperation,Chinese Academy of Personnel Science,Beijing,100101,China)
出处
《西华大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2024年第5期45-60,共16页
Journal of Xihua University(Philosophy & Social Sciences)
关键词
25年周期进化说
经济周期
经济发展方式转变
人力资源管理创新
因果检验
25-year cycle evolution theory
economic cycle
transformation of economic development pattern
human resource management innovation
causality test
