摘要
利用地面自动站降水资料、MICAPS高空实况资料、雷达资料和数值预报资料,对2019年7月19日广元市中东部出现的一次暴雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明,暴雨过程期间,受高空低值系统和低层暖湿气流的共同影响,同时伴随有台风活动,低层水汽条件和能量条件充沛。台风在此次过程中的作用,一是阻挡高空低值系统的东移,使影响系统较长时间维持在暴雨区;二是台风北侧偏东风气流将大量水汽源源不断向暴雨区输送。低涡切变线有利于水汽的辐合上升,在不稳定的暖湿大气层结中,地面弱冷空气入侵触发不稳定能量的释放。雷达特征显示广元市中东部为明显的片状混合云回波,中心回波强度超过45 dBZ,与强降雨中心落区一致。此次过程数值预报对形势的预报较为准确,对量级预报也有较好把握,但对落区预报较实况存在一定偏差,仅具有一定的参考价值。
Using the precipitation data of automatic ground stations,MICAPS high-altitude live data,radar data and numerical forecast data,this paper analyzes a rainstorm weather process that occurred in the middle east of Guangyuan on July 19,2019.The results show that during the rainstorm process,affected by the high-altitude low value system and the low-level warm and humid air flow,there will occur typhoon activity,and the low-level water vapor conditions and energy conditions are abundant.The roles of the typhoon in this process include blocking the eastward movement of the high-altitude low value system,so that the impact system will remain in the rainstorm area for a long time and continuously transporting a large amount of moisture to the rainstorm area from the easterly airflow on the north side of the typhoon.The low vortex shear line is conducive to the convergence and ascent of water vapor.In unstable warm and humid atmospheric structures,the invasion of weak cold air on the ground triggers the release of unstable energy.The radar features show obvious patchy mixed cloud echoes in the central and eastern parts of Guangyuan,with a central echo intensity exceeding 45 dBZ,which is consistent with the central area of heavy rainfall.The numerical forecast of this process is more accurate to the situation and has a good grasp of the magnitude forecast,but there is a certain deviation in the forecast of the falling area compared with the actual situation,which only has a certain reference value.
出处
《科技创新与应用》
2024年第27期111-114,共4页
Technology Innovation and Application
基金
广元市气象局数值模式应用与检验创新团队(无编号)。
关键词
暴雨
台风
雷达回波
低涡切变线
数值预报
rainstorm
typhoon
radar echo
low vortex shear line
numerical prediction
