摘要
货运结构在促进社会经济进步的同时也受其发展水平的限制,通过构建两个系统适应性评价指标体系,利用TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型以及灰色关联分析法,评估了湖北省货运结构与社会经济的适应性,并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明,湖北省货运结构与社会经济的发展水平在逐年提升,货运结构的发展速度跟不上经济发展;两个系统的耦合协调度均值为0.6884,货运结构初步适应全省经济发展;三级及以上公路密度,三级及以上航道密度,交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值等指标对两个系统适应性的影响最大。结果验证了评价模型的有效性,且适宜推广至其他省份或城市应用。
From the perspective of the adaptation between freight structural system and social and economic system,we constructed the adaptability evaluation index system for the two systems.Using TOPSIS,coupled coordination degree model and grey correlation analysis,we evaluated the adaptability of the freight structure system to the social and economic system in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2022,and analyzed its influencing factors.The research shows that(1)from 2010 to 2022,the development level of the freight structure system and the social and economic system in Hubei Province had risen on a yearly basis.Before 2018,the development level of the freight structure system was higher than that of the social and economic system,and after 2018 the development pace of the social and economic system accelerated,surpassing the freight structure system;(2)from 2010 to 2022,the coupling coordination degree value of the freight structure and the economic de⁃velopment in Hubei Province increased from 0.4929 to 0.8566,and the degree of coupling coordination changed from"near disorder"to"good coordination".During that period,the mean value of the coupling coordination degree between the freight structure and the economic development was 0.6884,indicating that the freight structure of Hubei Province had initially adapted to the economic development in the past ten plus years.The development trend of the coupling coordination degree between the freight structure sys⁃tem and the social and economic system was consistent with the development trend of the two systems;(3)in the freight structure system,the top three indexes that affect the adaptability of the two systems are density of the grade-3 and above highways,density of the grade-3 and above fairways,and total freight volume.In the social and economic development system,the added value of the transportation industry,warehousing in⁃dustry and postal industry have the greatest impact on the adaptability of the two systems,followed by per capita disposable income of residents,per
作者
邓国清
吴奉彦
李志纯
杜瑞
DENG Guoqing;WU Fengyan;LI Zhichun;DU Rui(Planning Research Office,Department of Transportation of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430030;School of Management,Huazhong University of Science&Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)
出处
《物流技术》
2024年第7期13-23,共11页
Logistics Technology
基金
湖北省交通运输厅项目“湖北省货物运输需求结构特征及演化趋势分析”
华中科技大学“交叉研究支持计划”项目(2023JCYJ021)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(YCJJ20242229)。
关键词
综合交通运输
货运结构
社会经济
适应性
comprehensive transportation
freight structure
social economy
adaptability
