摘要
气候变化和人类活动影响下流域水文过程及归因分析,对于理解水文演变规律,制订流域管理对策具有重要意义。以陕北黄土丘陵沟壑区的西川河流域为例,采用M-K检验、累积距平法等方法,分析近50 a来降雨、输沙、径流变化趋势与演变特征,基于Budyko假设识别驱动流域径流变化的主导因素,并进行定量归因研究。结果表明:流域降雨量的变化速率为-0.0854 mm/a,Z值为-0.026,总体变化不明显。输沙量和径流量的Z值分别为-3.35和-2.38,径流量、输沙量年际变化呈显著下降;春汛发生在3月,汛期集中在7—9月,占年径流量的50%以上。输沙量的年代际波动幅度最大,径流量次之,降雨量波动幅度最小;1996年为径流突变年份,流域年径流量变化对降雨最敏感,而人类活动是其减少的主要原因。从贡献来看,下垫面条件变化为69.15%,降雨量为21.99%,潜在蒸散发为8.86%;在人类活动影响下,西川河流域径流变化呈明显的不均匀性和趋势性。未来应结合生态恢复过程,加强土地利用变化与流域水沙过程关系研究。
[Background]Soil and water loss is serious in the sediment source area of the upper reaches of the Yanhe River.Climate change and human activities are important driving forces affecting the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes in the basin.The study of hydrological process and attribution analysis under the influence of climate change and human activities is of great significance for understanding the law of hydrological evolution and formulating soil erosion control plan.It is particularly important for the high-quality development of the basin,the planning and management of soil and water conservation,and the protection of the Yellow River.[Methods]Taking Xichuan River Basin in the loess hilly and gully region of northern Shaanxi province as an example,data from hydrological stations and meteorological data shared by websites were collected.M-K test,cumulative anomaly method,coefficient of variation and runoff extreme value ratio were used to analyze the variation trend and evolution characteristics of rainfall,sediment transport and runoff in recent 50 years.The dominant factors driving runoff change in the basin were identified based on Budyko hypothesis,and quantitative attribution research.[Results]According to the M-K trend test,the change rate of precipitation in the basin is-0.0854 mm/a,the test statistic(Z)value is-0.026,and the overall change is not obvious.The Z values of sediment transport and runoff were-3.35 and-2.38,respectively,and the inter-annual variation showed a significant downward trend.The spring flood occurs in March,and the flood season is concentrated in July-September,accounting for more than 50%of the annual runoff.Sediment discharge of decadal swings(the largest coefficient of variation(C_(v))value of 0.40-1.18),runoff times(C_(v)value of 0.21-0.43),the rainfall fluctuation minimum(C_(v)value of 0.18-0.23).The mutation year was determined according to M-K mutation test and cumulative anomaly curve,and the study period was divided into two periods,1971-1996 as the b
作者
史砚文
王计平
程复
王一川
罗志东
郭汉清
SHI Yanwen;WANG Jiping;CHENG Fu;WANG Yichuan;LUO Zhidong;GUO Hanqing(College of Forestry,Shanxi Agricultural University,030801,Jinzhong,Shanxi,China;Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration,Chinese Academy of Forestry,100091,Beijing,China;The Center of Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring of the Ministry of Water Resources,100053,Beijing,China;Yan′an Hydrology andWater Resources Survey Bureau of the Yellow River Water Conservancy Commission,716000,Yan′an,Shaanxi,China)
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期51-58,共8页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金“基于源汇景观格局流域水土流失评价与优化调控”(41871195),“基于源汇景观理论的植被恢复空间配置合理性评价与应用拓展”(STSTC2023008)。
关键词
径流
气候变化
人类活动
归因分析
Budyko假设
runoff
climate variability
human activity
attribution analysis
Budyko hypothesis
