摘要
在世界百年未有之大变局中,中国正加快与世界各地区及其域内国家发展经济伙伴关系。当中国同某个地区开展与深化经济合作时,常常由点及面,即首先与地区内某个或某几个国家接触并结成经济伙伴,再逐渐与地区内其他国家建立经济伙伴关系。观察中国拓展东南亚地区关系时的经济伙伴选择,可以发现有两个因素起到了关键作用:一是由东盟国家与中国的贸易相互依赖度和该国的地区网络中心度构成的经济指数,二是由东盟国家与中国的领导人互访密切度以及该国与美国的立场背离程度构成的安全指数。经济指数和安全指数相对更高的东盟国家更可能率先成为中国的经济伙伴以及加强与该地区关系的切入点。对1980—2002年中国与东盟国家构建投资伙伴关系样本数据的模型检验支持了这一结论。在案例分析中,东盟国家不同的经济指数与安全指数特征使得中国在东南亚地区选择投资伙伴呈现出先后顺序的差异,泰国与新加坡率先成为中国投资伙伴的现实案例也为研究结论提供了证据支撑。
Amid global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century,China is comprehensively expanding its foreign strategic layout and accelerating the development of economic partnerships with regions and countries worldwide.When venturing into economic diplomacy in a certain region,it often proceeds“from point to plane”,initially engaging with one or a few countries to forge economic partnerships and then gradually broadening its scope to include other regional players.In examining China's selection of economic partners in expanding its relations with the region of Southeast Asia,two key factors are pivotal:the economic index,comprising mutual trade dependency and regional centrality of the ASEAN country,and the security index,encompassing leader visit frequency with China and divergence from US positions.ASEAN countries with higher economic and security indices are more likely to become China's initial economic partners,serving as a gateway for China to strengthen its ties with the region.An empirical analysis,based on investment partnership data between China and ASEAN nations from 1980 to 2002,corroborates these findings.In case studies,the sequence of China's choice of investment partners in Southeast Asia reflects China's differentiated consideration towards different ASEAN countries,and the instances where Thailand and Singapore take the lead as China's investment partners provide evidence to support the conclusion.
作者
孙忆
孙宇辰
Sun Yi;Sun Yuchen(Institute for International Strategic Studies,Party School of the Central Committee of CPC(National Academy of Governance);China School of Banking and Finance,the University of International Business and Economics)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第8期129-153,158,共26页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“制度型开放背景下中国加入CPTPP的路径研究”(项目批准号:21CGJ018)的阶段性成果。
关键词
国际经济合作
经济伙伴选择
中国与东盟合作
周边关系
地区关系网络
international economic cooperation
choice of economic partners
China-ASEAN cooperation
neighborhood diplomacy
relation network of a region
