摘要
镓和锗是广泛应用于高新技术领域的重要战略资源。为了估测原产地发生供应危机对全球各国造成的影响,选取了2002—2022年金属镓、锗的贸易数据,运用贸易网络分析方法探究全球金属镓、锗贸易网络格局演变;建立级联失效(雪崩)模型,确立参数r_(1)=r_(2)=7,模拟2022年不同爆发源供应危机传播状况。研究发现:从全球贸易格局演变来看,金属镓、锗贸易规模和贸易平均度上升,亚洲国家与美国的贸易依赖关系有所减弱,南美洲对美国消费市场的贸易依赖指数增强;从网络供应危机传播来看,中国危机传播规模最大,传播轮次最多,美国和德国次之;在未锻轧金属镓、锗产品的贸易中,美国不会受中国供应危机的直接影响,而是通过比利时和瑞士受到间接影响。
Gallium and germanium are essential strategic resources utilized in various high-tech industries.As a major supplier of these elements,China recently announced plans to implement export restrictions on gallium and germanium-related products from July 3,2023.Assessing the potential repercussions of a supply disruption at the source on a global scale holds significant practical importance.This study examines trade data for gallium and germanium spanning from 2002 to 2022,employing trade network analysis techniques to quantify trade volumes,and examines the average degree and flow direction of global trade in gallium and germanium metals,introducing the trade dependence index to further analyze the evolution of the global trade network pattern of these metals.Additionally,a cascade failure(avalanche)model is developed with established parameters r_(1)=r_(2)=7 to simulate the effects of export control on the supply chain in 2022,including the propagation scale,rounds,and path of supply crises originating from various sources.The research indicates that,in the context of the evolution of global trade patterns,there is an increase in both the trade volume and average degree of gallium metal and germanium.Additionally,the trade dependence between Asian countries and the United States on gallium metal and germanium has decreased,while the trade dependence index of South America on the U.S.consumer market has strengthened.Furthermore,in terms of the dissemination of network supply crises,China exhibits the largest scale of crisis dissemination and the longest duration of dissemination,followed by the United States and Germany.European countries are the predominant nations among the top ten countries in terms of avalanche size.The impact of the China’s supply crisis on the U.S.trade in unwrought metal gallium and germanium products is not direct,but rather indirect through intermediary countries such as Belgium and Switzerland.It is advisable to enhance supply security within the industrial chain through international ec
作者
廖秋敏
谢柳燕
韩嘉雯
LIAO Qiumin;XIE Liuyan;HAN Jiawen(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi University of Technology,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China)
出处
《黄金科学技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期717-730,共14页
Gold Science and Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“稀土产品全球贸易网络格局演化与中国战略地位提升研究”(编号:21BGL182)资助。
关键词
金属镓
金属锗
贸易格局
复杂网络
供应危机
级联失效
gallium metal
germanium metal
trade pattern
complex network
supply crisis
cascading failure model
