摘要
科技界关于采用太阳辐射干预(SRM)等地球工程方案来遏制甚至扭转全球气候变化的讨论由来已久、日益增多。本文重点解读联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第六次评估报告(AR6)第二、三工作组报告中,关于SRM对自然和社会可能造成的风险及其实施障碍的认识与观点。1)SRM是碳减排和碳移除等气候减缓行动的不完美补充手段。SRM通过影响地球系统辐射平衡,以抵消人为温室气体排放所引起的辐射强迫,从而实现快速冷却和降低其他气候危害。但SRM没有解决人为气候变化的根源(温室气体),温室气体浓度增加对人类和自然系统的影响将依然存在。2)SRM的作用效果和潜在影响具有空间异质性,实施SRM可能会给人类和生态系统造成长期风险。实施SRM对作物产量、人类健康和生态系统的(积极和消极的)综合影响存在不确定性。因此,其决策过程需要考虑到区域异质性影响和长期风险,从而避免将负面影响转嫁至弱势地区,以及避免将风险转嫁给子孙后代。3)科学研究进展缓慢、公众认知水平不高和伦理道德观念不同、各国利益难以平衡,都对推进SRM科学实验和国际治理形成障碍。SRM科学研究面临评估结论不可靠、假设合理性存疑、未来因素不确定等挑战,当前科学基础难以有效支撑SRM国际治理发展。由于不同国家的利益差异、价值观差异和地缘政治因素,达成共识和协议可能会面临困难。目前缺乏正式责任和法律框架,可能给国际合作与和平带来新风险。SRM国际治理内涵涉及政策、法律、科学、公众参与和技术支持等多个层面,发展国际治理框架应与技术研究共同演进。
Discussions on solar radiation modification(SRM)to harness global climate change in academic domain have been rising.This paper gives an interpretation of IPCC ARR regarding its SRM's risks and obstacles on nature and society.SRM serves as an imperfect supplement in carbon emission reduction and removal,can offset radiation from manmade green gas emission through influencing the earth's radiation balance,reaching a fast cooling down and decrease other climatic hazards,but SRM has no solution to source of green gas,whose impacts on nature and human will remain with its rising concentration.Effectiveness and potential impacts of SRM is of spatial heterogeneity,and a long-term risk may be brought to human and nature upon its execution,uncertain on the crops production,human's health and eco-system.Decision must consider the regional heterogeneity and long-term risks to avoid its negative impacts on vulnerable areas and to human's offsprings.Slow research advances,low public recognition and ethic concept,and imbalanced nation's interests impedes SRM's scientific tests and international harness.SRM's research is challenged by unreliable evaluation conclusion,doubtful assumed rationality and future uncertainty.The current scientific basis cannot effectively support SRM's international harness.Nations with different interests,values and geopolitics are hard to reach agreement on SRM.Lack of official responsibilities and laws may bring new risks to international cooperation and peace.SRM's international harness covers policies,laws,science,public participation and technical supports,which shall be jointly developed with technical research.
作者
郑国梁
廖华
ZHENG Guoliang;LIAO Hua(Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;School of Management,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2024年第4期1-9,共9页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(23AZD063)。
