摘要
在俄乌冲突中,部分中等强国需要在维系与俄罗斯能源合作的前提下,继续维系与美国或欧洲的安全与战略关系。面对这一选择困境,它们拥有三种政策选择:一是随波逐流,消极敷衍。既顺从美欧引领、制造的集体压力,又顺从与俄罗斯能源合作的现状,且不对双方采取安抚措施。二是追随一方,另保核心。在政治上强烈谴责俄罗斯,在经济上全面参与制裁俄罗斯,但在核心领域延续与俄罗斯的合作。三是局内偏私,局外弥补。宣布对冲突保持中立,在为俄罗斯提供实质性帮助的同时,在美国和欧洲的其他重要战略关注上大力提供帮助。从实践经验来看,奥地利努力维持冲突前与西方的政治关系及与俄罗斯的经济关系;日本在认知域与物理域均“站队”西方,但同时以相对的隐蔽方式维持与俄罗斯的能源合作;印度则致力于用“中美竞争中助美”交易“俄乌冲突中助俄”。中短期内,它们均以较低成本在对外关系中维护了本国核心利益。从长期来看,这些中等强国的政策选择可能导致其内部利益集团分化,外部信任危机加剧;造成冲突双方的大国可能“决斗”倾向上升;增加劝和促谈难度;但同时,也使得全球互联“火种”存续,并在危机背后催生新的机遇。
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict,many middle powers need to maintain their security and strategic relations with the United States or Europe on the premise of maintaining energy cooperation with Russia.In the face of this dilemma,they have three policy options:one is to go with the flow,be passive and perfunctory.They can go along with the collective pressure led and created by the U.S.and Europe and submit to the status quo of energy cooperation with Russia without taking any appeasement measures on both sides.The secondoption is to follow one side and protect the core:strongly condemn Russia politically,fully participate in economic sanctions against Russia,and continue cooperation with Russia in core areas and key products.The third option is to favor one side and compensate the other:declare neutrality to the conflict,and while providing substantial help to Russia,offer significant help on other important U.S.and European strategic concerns.In terms of practical experience,Austria has endeavored to maintain its pre-conflict political relations with the West and economic relations with Russia;Japan has"sided"with the West in both the cognitive and physical domains but at the same time has maintained its energy cooperation with Russia in a relatively covert manner;India,on the other hand,is committed to"supporting the U.S.in the U.S.-China rivalry"in exchange for"helping Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict".In the short and medium term,all of them have defended their core interests in foreign relations at relatively low cost.In the long run,the policy choices of these middle powers may lead to the polarization of their internal interest groups and the exacerbation of the external crisis of confidence,resulting in a possible increase in the tendency of the major powers on both sides of the conflict to"duel",increasing the difficulty of constructive influence exerted by the country to persuade and promote negotiations.However,at the same time,it also makes the global interconnection"flame"survive and gives rise t
作者
张一飞
甄选
Zhang Yifei;Zhen Xuan
出处
《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》
CSSCI
2024年第4期38-56,161,162,共21页
Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies
基金
中国社会科学院智库基础研究项目“美国意识形态与认知战研究”(23ZKJC122)阶段性成果。
关键词
俄乌冲突
中等强国
对外政策
奥地利
日本
印度
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
MiddlePowers
Foreign Policy
Austria
Japan
India
