摘要
本文基于数字人民币的智能合约特性,构建了一个嵌入金融加速器机制的动态随机一般均衡模型,用以探究数字人民币对商业银行信贷期限结构的作用机制,以及央行定向回转的创新结构性货币政策工具的效应。研究发现:(1)数字人民币推广有助于降低经济系统的波动性,为经济稳定提供新支撑;(2)数字人民币对商业银行信贷期限结构的影响呈现期限异质性:长期贷款主要受到社会资本存量的影响,而短期贷款则更易受到数字人民币转换的直接影响;(3)数字人民币的转换会对商业银行的利润造成一定程度的挤压;(4)央行通过定向回转数字人民币方式,虽然可以缓解数字人民币带来的短期贷款市场流动性问题,但对于长期贷款市场的深层次影响有限。上述研究结论表明,央行应制定相应的激励措施以推动商业银行的积极参与,同时创新结构性货币政策工具以应对不同信贷市场的流动性需求。本研究为探讨数字人民币发行的经济影响,提供了新的证据和视角。
Based on the characteristics of smart contract of e-CNY,this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model containing the financial accelerator mechanism to explore the role of e-CNY on the credit term structure of commercial banks,and discusses the effect of the innovative structural monetary policy tool of the central bank's targeted reversal.The findings reveal that:(1)the promotion of e-CNY helps to reduce the volatility of the economic system and provide new support for economic stability;(2)the impact of e-CNY on the credit term structure of commercial banks shows term heterogeneity:long-term loans are mainly affected by the stock of social capital,while short-term loans are more likely to be directly affected by the conversion of e-CNY;(3)the conversion of e-CNY will cause a certain degree of profit squeeze for commercial banks;(4)although the central bank can alleviate the liquidity crunch of the loan market in the short term through the targeted reversal of the e-CNY approach,the deep impact on the long-term loan market is limited.These findings suggest that the central bank should formulate appropriate incentives to promote the active participation of commercial banks,and should innovate structural monetary policy tool to resolve the liquidity needs of different credit markets.This study provides valuable evidences and constructive insights for exploring the economic consequences of e-CNY.
作者
游宗君
周书通
王鹏
YOU Zongjun;ZHOU Shutong;WANG Peng
出处
《金融监管研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期54-72,共19页
Financial Regulation Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于非均衡SVM智能方法的金融市场风险预警模型及其应用研究”(21YJC790115)
浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题“疫情冲击下区块链金融助力中小微企业的融资模式及其保障机制研究”(21NDJC168YB)
宁波市哲学社会科学规划课题“区块链技术赋能宁波市商业银行信用风险管理的路径与机制研究”(G2022-15-27)。
