摘要
目的分析2011-2020年乌鲁木齐市手足口病(HFMD)流行病学特征,构建SARIMA模型预测发病趋势,为完善防控举措提供依据。方法对2011-2020年乌鲁木齐市HFMD病例数据进行描述性流行病学特征分析,建立SARIMA模型。结果乌鲁木齐市2011-2020年HFMD年均发病率为68.60/10万,重症32例,死亡4例;2011-2019年呈隔年高发趋势,2018年发病率为近10年最高(105.69/10万),季节性明显,呈双峰流行。HFMD年均发病率最高的区县为经开区(头区),达到107.35/10万。男性年均发病率为80.55/10万,女性为56.12/10万,男女比为1.50∶1.00,2011-2019年男性发病率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),2020年男女发病率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。发病最小年龄为1 d,最大为67岁,5岁以下儿童病例数占比最高(85.82%);主要为托幼和散居儿童。2011-2020年共检测HFMD标本7778份,阳性率为81.15%,以其他肠道病毒占比最高(46.28%)。SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型为最优模型。结论乌鲁木齐市HFMD有周期性、季节性、性别、年龄差异,应持续做好监测,加强重点人群防控工作;SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型拟合较好,与实际发病情况趋势一致,可用于预测乌鲁木齐市HFMD未来发病情况,对指导乌鲁木齐市HFMD防控存在一定理论价值;关注病原分布和变化情况,完善实验室病毒分型。
Objective To analyze the epidemiologic feature of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020,and to construct SARIMA model to forecast the trend of incidence,providing basis for formulating prevention and control strategies for HFMD.Methods The descriptive epidemiologic feature of HFMD case data in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed,and the SARIMA model was established.Results The average annual incidence of HFMD in Urumqi from 2011 to 2020 was 68.60/100000,with 32 severe cases and 4 deaths.From 2011 to 2019,the incidence was higher every other year.The incidence rate in 2018 was the highest in nearly 10 years(105.69/100000),showed obvious seasonality and bimodal prevalence.The highest annual incidence of HFMD was in the economic development district(head district),reaching 107.35/100,000.The average annual incidence rate was 80.55/100000 for males and 56.12/100000 for females,and the male-to-female ratio was 1.50∶1.00,the incidence of male was higher than femal from 2011 to 2019,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),while the incidence rate of males and females in 2020 had no statistical significance(P>0.05).The minimum age of onsets were one day and the maximum age was 67 years.The number of cases in children under 5 years old was the highest(85.82%).The main occupation is childcare and diaspora children.A total of 7778 HFMD samples were detected from 2011 to 2020,and the positive rate was 81.15%,with other enteroviruses accounting for the highest proportion(46.28%).SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the optimal model.Conclusion There are significant periodic,seasonal,gender,and age differences in HFMD in Urumqi,continuous monitoring should be done to strengthen the prevention and control of key groups.The SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model fits well and is consistent with the actual incidence trend.It can be used to predict the future incidence of HFMD in Urumqi,and has certain theoretical value for guiding the prevention and control of HFMD in Urumqi;focusing on the distribution
作者
方惟一
郝文渊
祖力皮卡尔·吐迪
陈薇
卢耀勤
FANG Weiyi;HAO Wenyuan;ZULIPIKAER Tudi;CHEN Wei;LU Yaoqin(Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Urumqi,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830026,China)
出处
《中国医药导报》
CAS
2024年第16期24-28,共5页
China Medical Herald
基金
新疆科技创新团队(天山创新团队)项目(2022TSYCTD0015)。
