摘要
河北省作为工业大省,工业能耗和碳排放总量占全省比重均超过70%,加快工业低碳转型是如期实现全省碳达峰碳中和目标的关键。综合运用比较分析、模型分析、文献梳理等方法,全面总结河北省工业能耗排碳现状和特征,深入分析工业降碳目标和关键影响因素,并提出推进河北省工业低碳转型的针对性对策建议。通过能耗排碳现状分析发现,河北省工业能耗排碳总量大、领域集中,工业能耗总量位居全国各省份第3位、六大高耗能行业能源消耗总量占全省规上工业91.7%。通过STIRPAT拓展模型分析发现,河北省工业碳达峰基准情景和高发展强低碳情景最为有利,工业碳排放总量主要受工业规模、工业结构、能耗结构、能耗强度影响,其中能耗结构、工业结构、能耗强度是抑制工业碳排放的主要变量。针对河北省工业低碳转型的重点领域和关键环节,提出实施工业用能替代、推进工业结构低碳化调整、强化工业转型技术支撑、创新工业减碳管理机制、加快工业数字化转型赋能、实施工业减碳重大工程等对策建议。
As a large industrial province, Hebei's industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions account for more than 70% of the province's total. Accelerating industrial low-carbon transformation is the key to achieving the province's carbon peak and carbon neutrality as scheduled. By using comparative analysis, model analysis, literature review and other methods, the current situation and characteristics of industrial energy consumption and carbon emission in Hebei Province were summarized, industrial carbon reduction objectives and key influencing factors were analyzed, and targeted countermeasures and suggestions to promote the low-carbon transformation of Hebei industry were put forward. Through the analysis of the current situation of industrial energy consumption and carbon emission, it is found that Hebei Province's industrial energy consumption and carbon emission have the characteristics of large total amount and concentration in various fields. The total industrial energy consumption of Hebei Province ranks the third among all provinces in China. The total energy consumption of the six highenergy-consuming industries accounts for 91.7% of the province's designated industries. Through STIRPAT extended model analysis, it is found that the baseline scenario of industrial carbon peaking and the scenario of high development and strong low carbon in Hebei Province are the most favorable.The total industrial carbon emission is mainly affected by industrial scale, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and energy consumption intensity, among which energy consumption structure,industrial structure and energy consumption intensity are the main variables to curb industrial carbon emission. In view of the key areas and key links of Hebei Province's industrial low-carbon transformation,countermeasures and suggestions were put forward such as implementing industrial energy substitution,promoting low-carbon adjustment of industrial structure, strengthening technical support for industrial transformation, innov
作者
黄贺林
苏凤虎
HUANG Helin;SU Fenghu(Hebei Provincial Macroeconomic Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050050,China)
出处
《新型工业化理论与实践》
2024年第4期113-125,共13页
Theory and Practice of New Industrialization
基金
世界银行全球环境基金河北省中国能效市场机制项目“碳达峰和碳中和目标下河北省工业转型路径研究”(项目编号:P132748)
河北省宏观经济研究院院立课题“‘双碳’背景下河北省钢铁行业低碳转型路径研究”。
关键词
碳达峰
碳中和
河北省
工业
低碳转型
STIRPAT拓展模型
对策建议
carbon peaking
carbon neutrality
Hebei Province
industry
low-carbon transition
STIRPAT extended model
countermeasures and suggestions
