摘要
目的系统地检索和评价中国成人非酒精性脂肪性肝病(non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,NAFLD)风险预测模型的偏倚性和适用性。方法计算机检索在PubMed、Embase、The Cochrane Library、Web of Science、中国知网、万方、维普、中国生物医学等数据库发布的有关成人NAFLD风险预测模型的研究,检索时间为从建库至2023年9月1日。由2名研究者独立筛选文献,并根据预测模型研究数据提取表进行资料提取,应用预测模型研究偏倚风险评估工具评价纳入文献的偏倚风险和适用性。结果共纳入17项中国成人NAFLD风险预测模型研究,报告了25个风险预测模型。仅1项研究对模型进行内外部验证,其余均对模型进行内部验证。模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.718~0.945,预测因子主要包含人口学因素(年龄、性别等)、体格检查指标(BMI、腹围等)、实验室检查指标(TG、ALT等),除1项研究偏倚风险不清楚,其余均存在较高的偏倚风险。结论纳入的模型具有良好的预测效能,预测因子不尽相同但存在一定共性,存在高偏倚风险且缺乏外部验证,其临床价值有待进一步验证。
Objective To systematically search and evaluate the risk prediction models for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)in Chinese adults.Methods Studies on risk prediction models for adult NAFLD were searched in online databases of PubMed,Embase,the Cochrane Library,Web of Science,CNKI,Wanfang,VIP and Chinese Biomedicine from the establishment of the database to September 1,2023.Two researchers independently screened the literatures,extracted the data according to the prediction model research data extraction table,and evaluated the bias risk and applicability of the included literatures using the prediction model research bias risk assessment tool.Results A total of 17 studies reporting risk prediction models for NAFLD in Chinese adults were included,involving 25 risk prediction models.Only one study conducted internal and external validation of the model,and the remaining conducted internal validation of the model.The area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)analysis ranged from 0.718 to 0.945.Predictors mainly included demographic factors(age,gender,etc.),physical examination indicators(body mass index[BMI],abdominal circumference,etc.),and laboratory examination indicators(triglyceride[TG],alanine aminotransferase[ALT],etc.).Except for one study with unclear risk of bias,the remaining had a high risk of bias.Conclusion The included prediction models for adult NAFLD have good predictive efficacy,different but common predictive factors,high risk of bias and lack of external validation,and their clinical value needs to be further verified.
作者
兰瑶
敬洁
黄新平
严仕琼
LAN Yao;JING Jie;HUANG Xin-ping;YAN Shi-qiong
出处
《中国疗养医学》
2024年第8期17-23,共7页
Chinese Journal of Convalescent Medicine
关键词
非酒精性脂肪肝
中国成年人
风险预测模型
系统评价
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Chinese adults
Risk prediction model
Systematic evaluation
