摘要
利用2019—2020年中国气象局地面站降水观测资料,使用相关系数、平均值误差、均方根误差、命中率、空报率以及关键成功指数6种定量评估指标,分析全球新一代降水测量计划IMERG多卫星联合反演和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析ERA5L降水产品在四川地区的精度和区域适用性。结果表明:两种产品在川西高原东侧存在强降水带,大致呈准南北向分布;在盆地内与台站观测的一致性优于盆地周边山区,ERA5L相比IMERG更能准确捕捉到强降水中心。IMERG和ERA5L降水较台站观测分别偏多15.2%和33.3%。两种产品在川西高原对降水事件捕获能力相对盆地高,误报率低。从不同时间尺度检验上看,两种产品与台站观测的量级和趋势变化一致,相对台站观测以偏高为主。ERA5L相对IMERG而言,与台站观测相关性高,命中率高,CSI评分高,偏差低,但误报率相对高一些。总体上,IMERG和ERA5L降水产品在四川均表现出一定的应用潜力,但在不同降水强度和地形条件下精度差异明显,需要对产品进行订正。
Using precipitation observation data from China Meteorological Administration ground stations from 2019 to 2020,six quantitative evaluation indicators including correlation coefficients(CCs),mean bias errors(MBEs),root mean square errors(RMSEs),probability of detections(PODs),false alarm rates(FARs),and critical success indices(CSIs)were used to analyze the accuracy and regional applicability of the IMERG multi-satellite remote sensing retrieval of the Global New Generation Global Precipitation Measurement Program(GPM)and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Fifth Generation Land Surface Reanalysis(ERA5L)precipitation products in Sichuan region,China.The results show that the two products have a strong precipitation zone on the eastern side of the western Sichuan Plateau,roughly distributed in a quasi north-south direction,and that ERA5L can capture heavy precipitation centers more accurately compared to IMERG.The consistency between station observations within the basin is better than in the surrounding mountainous areas.The precipitation of IMERG and ERA5L was 15.2%and 33.3%,respectively,higher than that observed by the station,respectively.The two products have a relatively high ability to capture precipitation events in the western Sichuan Plateau,with low FAR.From the perspective of time test statistical indicators,the trends and magnitude changes observed by the two products and stations are basically consistent,with relatively high relative station observations being the main trend.Compared to IMERG,ERA5L has a high CC with site observations,a high POD,a high CSI,and a low deviation,but a relatively high FAR.Overall,both IMERG and ERA5L precipitation products have shown certain potential for application in Sichuan province,but there are significant differences in accuracy under different precipitation intensities and terrain conditions,requiring product correction.
作者
黄晓龙
向筱铭
王丽伟
李施颖
蒋雨荷
HUANG Xiaolong;XIANG Xiaoming;WANG Liwei;LI Shiying;JIANG Yuhe(Sichuan Meteorological Observation and Data Centre,Chengdu 610072,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Jinlin Meteorological Information Centre,Changchun 130062,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2024年第3期65-75,共11页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
四川省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2022YFS0544、2022YFS0541)
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金重点专项(SCQXKJZD202102)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J067)
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3003904)共同资助。
关键词
降水
卫星反演
陆面再分析
IMERG
ERA5L
精度评价
Precipitation
Satellite retrieval
Land surface reanalysis
Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM(IMERG)
European Fifth Generation Land Surface Reanalysis(ERA5L)
Accuracy evaluation
