摘要
本文运用改进的TERGM对区域全面经济伙伴关系协定进行动态分析,以研究该协定结构、演进特征与未来发展方向。研究发现:第一,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定网络具有显著的时变特征,成员国间贸易伙伴关系逐渐由二元推进转为多元的开放合作模式;第二,成员国间较高的关税水平是亚太区域贸易合作发展的主要障碍,关税壁垒的削除应成为降低企业经营成本、提升区域全面经济伙伴关系协定成员国间经贸福利的最重要策略之一;第三,基于制度合作、政策协调与非关税壁垒的削减带来的福利,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定将成为协定国间的高水平合作、治理平台。综合来看,虽然区域全面经济伙伴关系协定国仍然要面对如统一规则制定、区域立法监督保障机制等一系列挑战,但区域全面经济伙伴关系协定的签署将极大促进以发展中国家为主体的东亚区域经贸合作发展,为提升亚太地区在全球经济贸易格局中的话语权、缓解摩擦争端、实现世界经济复苏发挥积极作用。
The improved TERGM is used for dynamic analysis of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),including agreement structure,evolutionary characteristics,and future development direction.Some findings are as follow:first,RCEP network has significant time-varying characteristics.The trade partnership among member states gradually transitions from a bilateral promotion to a multi-pronged open cooperation model.Second,high tariff among member states is the major obstacle to the development of trade cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region.Eliminating tariff barriers should become one of the most important strategies to reduce business operating costs and enhance the economic welfare of RCEP member countries.Third,institutional cooperation,policy coordination,and non-tariff barrier reduction can provide a platform for high-level cooperation and efficient governance in the RCEP area.On the one hand,RCEP countries still face a series of challenges,such as formulating unified rules,regional legislative oversight and guarantee mechanisms.On the other hand,the signing of the RCEP agreement can greatly promote the development of East Asian regional economic and trade cooperation dominated by developing countries,and play a positive role in enhancing the voice of the Asia-Pacific region in the global economic and trade pattern,alleviate friction and disputes,and facilitate the recovery of the world economy.
作者
彭红枫
常晓君
王雪童
PENG Hongfeng;CHANG Xiaojun;WANG Xuetong
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第6期106-122,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“高水平开放背景下全球金融周期冲击与系统性金融风险防控研究”(22&ZD119)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际金融周期、跨境资本流动及资本账户开放政策动态调整:理论、建模与实证”(72273073)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“全球价值链视角下分行业出口汇率弹性分解及影响因素分析研究”(22YJA790045)。
