摘要
基于湖北省26个站点的1960年—2019年日降雨数据,选择12个极端降雨指数进行统计,采用一元线性回归及Hurst指数法,分析湖北省内极端降雨时空变化特征及未来发展趋势。结果表明:湖北省内1960年—2019年各区域极端降雨指数变化幅度较大,且不同地区的极端降雨特征有明显区别。除连续干旱日数由北部往南部递减,其余极端降雨指数整体上都从南往北递减。湖北省中部地区大部分区域极端降雨事件是逐年增长的,且在未来将继续保持增长趋势。以武汉、孝感、咸宁为主的湖北中部城市需加强城市内涝防范,以恩施为主的湖北西南部城市需加强极端降雨下水土流失防范措施。对极端降雨事件将增加的地区,其范围内的工程项目应在施工计划中进一步完善相应的极端降雨防范措施,以保证施工安全。
This paper used daily rainfall data from 26 rain gauges in Hubei Province from 1960 to 2019,selected 12 extreme rainfall indexes and statistics,and used unary linear regression and Hurst index method to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall in Hubei Province and future development trends.The results has been showed that the extreme rainfall index of various regions in Hubei Province has been changed greatly from 1960 to 2019,and the characteristics of extreme rainfall in different regions are obviously different.Except for the CDD decreasing from the north to the south,the other extreme rainfall indexes generally decrease from south to north.The extreme rainfall events in most areas of the central part of Hubei Province are increasing year by year,and will continue to increase in the future.Cities in central Hubei,dominated by Wuhan,Xiaogan,and Xianning,need to be strengthened prevention of urban waterlogging;cities in southwestern Hubei,dominated by Enshi,need to be strengthened prevention measures for soil erosion under extreme rainfall.For areas where extreme rainfall events will increase,the engineering projects within its scope shall further improve the corresponding extreme rainfall prevention measures in the construction plan to ensure construction safety.
作者
唐慧雅
余金水
肖舟
TANG Huiya;YU Jinshui;XIAO Zhou(China Communications Construction Company Second Harbour Consultants Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430060,China;Wuhan Changxia Foundation Engineering Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430000,China)
出处
《水道港口》
2024年第3期407-414,共8页
Journal of Waterway and Harbor
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51979198)。
关键词
湖北省
极端降雨指数
HURST指数
时空变化
Hubei Province
extreme rainfall index
hurst index
spatio-temporal variation
