摘要
文章基于2013—2021年新疆数字经济发展的相关面板数据,从经济发展水平、数字通信基础设施、社会创新能力、企业电子化水平四个维度,构建起新疆数字经济发展综合水平的评价指标体系,并通过熵值法测算各个指标的权重,进而对2013—2021年新疆数字经济发展水平进行综合评价。此外,采用灰色关联分析法探讨各个子系统与新疆数字经济发展之间的关联性,同时利用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对短期新疆数字经济发展的总体趋势进行预测。结果表明:新疆数字经济发展水平总体呈逐年提升的时序特征,从各准则层看,数字通信基础设施提升幅度最大,而社会创新能力不足;根据关联度测算结果可知,经济发展水平对数字经济发展的影响较为显著,社会创新能力仍是新疆发展数字经济的短板,但未来新疆数字经济的发展仍有很大潜力。
Based on the panel data related to the development of digital economy in Xinji⁃ang from 2013 to 2021,this article constructs a comprehensive level evaluation index system for the digital economy development in Xinjiang from four dimensions,namely,the level of econom⁃ic development,digital communication infrastructure,social innovation capacity,and the level of e-enterprise,and measures the weight of each index by entropy method,and then conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the development level of digital economy in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2021.In addition,we use gray correlation analysis method to explore the correlation between each subsystem and the development of the digital economy in Xinjiang and also use the GM(1,1)gray prediction model to predict the overall trend of digital economy development in Xinjiang in the next four years.The results show that the overall level of digital economy development in Xinjiang is characterized by a year-by-year time series,and from the perspective of each criteri⁃on layer,the digital communication infrastructure has the largest increase,while the social inno⁃vation capacity is insufficient.According to the results of the correlation measurements,the lev⁃el of economic development has a more significant impact on the development of digital econo⁃my,and the social innovation capacity is still a shortcoming in the development of digital econo⁃my in Xinjiang,but the development of Xinjiang’s digital economy in the future still has a lot of potential.
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(21VXJ027)
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“新时代中国共产党富民兴疆的理论与实践研究”(20BDJ006)
2021年新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究课题“对象化、分众化、互动化开展新疆社科普及研究”(2021ZJFLY41)。
