摘要
农村地区数字基础设施建设大大增强了农民的信息获取能力,对农民生活和农业生产产生了重要影响。本文利用2009~2017年全国农村固定观察点微观入户调查数据,基于深度神经网络工具变量方法估计了数字基础设施使用对农村家庭粮食生产总量和播种面积的影响,结果发现数字基础设施使用降低了家庭粮食总生产量和总播种面积。异质性分析发现,数字基础设施使用对农村家庭农业生产的负向影响随户主受教育程度变化呈现“U”型特征,同时家庭人均耕地面积越多的农村家庭,其粮食生产受数字基础设施使用的负向影响越大。机制分析表明,数字基础设施使用主要通过家庭内部的劳动力转移效应和非粮食作物的替代效应减少家庭的粮食生产活动。粮食安全是国家安全的基础,本文认为农村数字基础设施普及对粮食生产总量和播种面积的负向影响需要引起高度重视,应当通过加大惠农补贴力度、提高农民种粮收益、推进数字农业建设等政策措施,助力保障国家粮食安全。
The availability of digital infrastructure in rural areas has led to a significant increase in farmers’access to information.As of December 2021,the number of Internet users in China had reached 1.032 billion,with an Internet penetration rate of 73.0%,among which the number of rural Internet users was 284 million,and the Internet penetration rate in rural areas was 57.6%,having important implications for farmers’livelihoods and agricultural production.From a theoretical level,the use of digital infrastructure may affect the agricultural production activities of rural households in two ways.The first is the information effect of the use of digital infrastructure.The Internet,as an important carrier of information dissemination in the digital age,can facilitate users’convenient access to relevant information and greatly reduce their information search costs.Therefore,the popularization and use of rural digital infrastructure can bring a large amount of nonfarm employment information to rural laborers and reduce information search costs in the labor market,thus facilitating nonfarm employment of rural residents.The second is the technological effect of digital infrastructure use.From the perspective of technological progress,the popularization of digital infrastructure has promoted the digital transformation of relevant enterprises and accelerated the process of agricultural digitization in China.The widespread use of digital infrastructure has also promoted the deep integration of emerging digital technologies with traditional agriculture,providing a guarantee for new business models such as“smart agriculture”and“e-commerce agriculture.”In the era of big data,agricultural digitization to promote modern agriculture in China is key to improving the income of agricultural production and stimulating the expansion of agricultural production scale.Therefore,the overall impact of digital infrastructure use on agricultural production depends on the results of the combined effects of information and technology
作者
刘生龙
张晓明
LIU Shenglong;ZHANG Xiaoming(School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第7期155-176,共22页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(72073078,72293571)的资助。
关键词
数字基础设施
粮食生产
深度学习
配置效应
替代效应
Digital Infrastructure
Grain Production
Deep Learning
Allocation Effect
Substitution Effect
