摘要
为预防船舶因会遇态势感知不明、未能及时采取有效避让行动而导致的碰撞事故,提出面向紧迫危险威胁的应急操船方法。首先基于碰撞事故调查报告数据,反演船舶会遇过程;其次考虑船舶碰撞危险度的不确定性和随机性,构建钟形灰云模型,获得实时碰撞风险概率(PCR),揭示时序下碰撞风险演化特征;然后引入克里金空间插值算法,实现会遇2船碰撞风险感知与图谱表达;最后提出避让决策评估指数和转向避碰应急操船方法。交叉相遇局面碰撞事故验证结果表明:交叉会遇局面下单纯转向避让,让路船对正横后来船在最近会遇时间(TCPA)10 min前向右转向112.5°可有效避免紧迫局面;若让路船无行动,直航船在TCPA 4 min前向右转向45°可有效避免紧迫危险。文中所提事故数据驱动的精细应急操船方法,可与传统的雷达标绘和航海经验的操船方法相结合实施。
To prevent collision accidents caused by ships failing to take timely and effective avoidance actions due to unclear situation awareness,an emergency ship maneuvering method aimed at addressing urgent dangerous threats was proposed.Based on the data from collision accident investigation reports,the ship encounter process was reconstructed.Considering the uncertainty and randomness of the ship collision risk,a bell-shaped grey cloud model was developed to obtain PCR in real-time and reveal its temporal evolution characteristics.The Kriging spatial interpolation algorithm was used to obtain the perception and graph representation of PCR between two ships.Furthermore,an avoidance decision-making assessment index was proposed to provide emergency maneuvering methods for steering collision avoidance.The validations of the collision accident in the crossing situation indicated that steering avoidance could effectively avoid a close-quarters situation if the give-way ship had taken action by the rudder in a crossing situation and turned starboard by 112.5°before the time of closest point of approach(TCPA)was 10 min.Furthermore,if the give-way ship did not take any action,the stand-on ship should turn to starboard by 45°before the TCPA was 4 min to effectively avoid immediate danger.This study proposes a fine-grained accident data-driven emergency ship-handling method that can be implemented in conjunction with traditional radar mapping and nautical experience ship-handling methods.
作者
吴建军
陈炎
朱清华
胡甚平
WU Jianjun;CHEN Yan;ZHU Qinghua;HU Shenping(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;National Engineering Research Center for Ship Transportation Control System,Shanghai 200135,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期238-246,共9页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助(23YJAZH157)。
关键词
紧迫危险
交叉相遇局面
应急操船
灰云模型
碰撞风险概率(PCR)
immediate danger
crossing situation
emergency ship maneuvering
gray-cloud model
potential collision risk(PCR)
