摘要
选取中国2006—2021年有关城镇化、农业机械化和城乡发展差距的时间序列数据,构建城乡发展差距综合指标评价体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法测算各个年度的综合得分,以此评估城乡发展差距的演变.通过构建向量误差修复模型,分析了中国城镇化与农业机械化对城乡发展差距水平的时变特征.结果表明,城乡发展差距自2007年起总体呈波动性下降趋势,在2013年后下降趋势变缓,2019年后有小幅度回升.城镇化水平、农业机械化水平和城乡发展差距三者之间具备相关性,农业机械化水平对缩小城乡差距的效果最为明显且可以产生长期影响,城镇化对城乡发展差距的缩小也在第2期后起正向作用.提出了加强城乡融合的顶层设计以及加快提高农机装备水平等相关政策建议,为缩小城乡发展差距水平提供相关借鉴.
The time series data on urbanization,agricultural mechanization,and urban-rural development disparities in China from 2006 to 2021 are selected,a comprehensive indicator evaluation system for urban-rural development disparities is constructed,and the entropy TOPSIS method is used to calculate the comprehensive scores of each year,so as to evaluate the evolution of the urban-rural development disparities.The vector error correction model(VECM)is constructed to study the time-varying characteristics of urbanization and agricultural mechanization on the urban-rural development disparities in China.The results show that the urban-rural development disparities has generally shown a fluctuating downward trend since 2007,and the downward trend has slowed down after 2013,and has a small recovery after 2019.There is a correlation between urbanization level,agricultural mechanization level,and urban-rural development disparities.Agricultural mechanization has the most obvious effect on narrowing the urban-rural development disparities and keeps a long-term impact.Urbanization also plays a positive role in narrowing the urban-rural development disparities after the second phase.Some policy suggestions are proposed to strengthen the top-level design of urban-rural integration and accelerate the improvement of agricultural machinery equipment level,these suggestions can provide relevant reference for narrowing urban-rural development disparities.
作者
张沛霖
唐耀宗
ZHANG Peilin;TANG Yaozong(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,China)
出处
《高师理科学刊》
2024年第6期20-29,共10页
Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2022D01A235)。
