摘要
地质灾害危险性评价对降低地质灾害发生的不确定性及区域防灾减灾至关重要。本研究以粤北山区翁源县为例,选取与地质灾害密切相关的自然环境、区位距离与人类活动方面共13个评价指标,并基于皮尔逊相关系数进行评价指标相关性验证。采用信息量-随机森林耦合模型(Information-Random forest model,I-RF)对研究区地质灾害危险性进行评价,并结合地理探测器(Geodetector,GD)对地质灾害危险性驱动因子进行分析。研究结果显示:ROC曲线验证AUC值达到0.890,表明I-RF耦合模型可以较好地分析刻画研究区地质灾害危险性格局;研究区较高、高易发区主要分布河谷平原区和丘陵区,占比49.85%,中低易发区主要分布低山丘陵区,占比50.15%。县域中心龙仙镇遭受地质灾害的危险性较大,铁龙镇地质灾害危险性较低;因子探测结果显示高程、人口足迹和地质岩组是研究区崩塌、滑坡和泥石流三种主要地质灾害共有的诱发因子,交互探测结果显示高程是研究区地质灾害发生首要驱动因子,崩塌和滑坡主要受高程与距河流距离、地形起伏度和暴雨雨量交互驱动影响,泥石流则主要受高程与地形地貌、地质构造、水文气象和人类活动等方面评价指标交互驱动影响。总体来看,研究区地质灾害危险程度较高,应针对不同的地质灾害危险区和地灾类型,实施差异化的地质灾害防治措施。
The uncertainties of time,space and scale of geological disasters bring great difficulties to disasters prevention and mitigation.The risk assessment of geological disasters is very important to reduce the uncertainty of geological disasters and regional disaster prevention and reduction.Therefore,it is very necessary to evaluate the risk of regional geological disasters.This study takes Wengyuan County in the mountain area of northern Guangdong as an example,13 evaluation indicators of natural environment,location distance and human activities which are closely related to geological disasters are selected,and are verified for the correlation of evaluation indicators based on Pearson correlation coefficient.Firstly,the information value of each evaluation index classification interval is obtained based on the information quantity model,and then the random forest model is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index to weight the information quantity model to get the geological disasters prone result of I-RF model.Finally,the geographical detector is used to detect the factors of the results of the Information-Random forest(I-RF)model,and the influence degree of each evaluation factor on the risk of geological disasters is quantitatively analyzed.The results show that:(1)The ROC curve verifies that the AUC value reaches 0.890,indicating that the I-RF model can better analyze and depict the risk pattern of geological disasters in the study area.(2)The area of high and high prone areas in the study area accounts for 49.85%,which is mainly distributed in valley plains and hilly areas where human activities are strong and ecologically sensitive and fragile,while middle and low prone areas account for 50.15%,mainly distributed in the low mountain hilly areas with little human disturbance,high vegetation cover,relatively low rainfall and rainfall erosion force.(3)From the county center,Longxian Town,which has good economic development,frequent construction activities and high development intensity,it is more li
作者
李亚
邓南荣
陈朝
陈进栋
王琦
李冠虹
LI Ya;DENG Nanrong;CHEN Zhao;CHEN Jindong;WANG Qi;LI Guanhong(National-Regional Joint Engineering Research Center for Soil Pollution Control and Remediation in South China,Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management,Institute of Eco-environmental and Soil Sciences,Guangdong Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510650,China;School of Geographic Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China)
出处
《地球与环境》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期330-342,共13页
Earth and Environment
基金
广东省科学院发展专项资金项目(2019GDASYL-0105042)
国家自然科学基金项目(41877514、42277479)。
