摘要
广东清新—佛冈—龙门是广东三大暴雨中心之一,历史上曾多次发生洪涝灾害,大秦、银盏、良洞和黄龙带四座中小水库地处该雨窝中心,因而提升其防洪减灾及水资源管理能力亟待研究。利用研究区域内93个站点的历史逐日雨量数据,基于EEMD分解、圆形统计和R/S分析等方法,对这四座中小水库的极端降水及其发生时间的特征进行分析。结果表明,四座水库各极端降水指数主要表现为准3、7年的年际变化周期;四座水库的极端降水主要发生在前汛期,且未来发生时间仍会高度集中;良洞水库具有最强的降水强度和极值降水,大秦和银盏水库的降水极端性在未来有增强趋势,应特别关注;在年初的冬季至秋季需做好四座水库灾害性天气的监测和预警,其中春夏季需重点关注良洞水库极端降水的发生。
Qingyuan-Fogang-Longmen which had occurred floods many times in history is one of the three heavy rain-storm centers in Guangdong Province.For providing scientific references for flood control and hazard mitigation,as well as water resource management of Daqin,Yinzhan,Liangdong and Huanglongdai reservoirs under this"Rain Nest"ter-rain,historical daily rainfall data from 93 stations in study area were used,and the characteristics of extreme precipitation and its occurrence time of four small and medium sized reservoir were investigated with the help of EEMD,circle statis-tics and R/S analysis method.The main results are as follows:The interannual variation periods of the extreme precipita-tion indices of four reservoirs is 3 a and 7 a.The extreme precipitation of four reservoirs mainly occurs during pre-rainy season,and its occurrence time will still be highly concentrated in the future.Liangdong Reservoir has the strongest pre-cipitation intensity and extreme precipitation,and the extreme precipitation of Daqin and Yinzhan Rerervoirs will increase in the future,which should be given special attention.The extreme precipitation of four reservoirs mainly occurs from winter to autumn and in spring and summer in Liangdong Reservoir should be focused on.
作者
陈晓旸
王敏
梁健
孙秀峰
CHEN Xiao-yang;WANG Min;LIANG Jian;SUN Xiu-feng(Shaoguan Meteorological Office of Guangdong Province,Shaoguan 512000,China;Guangdong Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510610,China;Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510610,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2024年第6期10-14,41,共6页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42075190)
广东省水利科技创新重点项目(2022-02)。
关键词
中小水库
极端降水
发生时间
EEMD
圆形统计
HURST指数
small and medium sized reservoir
extreme precipitation
occurrence time
EEMD
circle statistics
Hurst indices
