摘要
在外部经济环境不确定性上升背景下,本文探究了高标准贸易协定对全球供应链韧性的影响。特征事实分析显示,制度环境是影响供应链韧性的重要因素,提高贸易协定深度可降低全球供应链断裂风险。本文进一步构建制度环境与供应链韧性的动态合约模型,引入合约不完备程度和随机供应链冲击。理论模型表明,在供应链冲击下,无论是即期合约还是关系型合约,制度环境改善都将降低供应链交易关系断裂概率,且采用关系型合约的供应链更具韧性。结构估计和量化分析证实,提高贸易协定深度可改善制度环境,降低全球供应链断裂概率、增强供应链韧性;签订《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)和加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)都将降低中国从成员国进口供应链的断裂概率,且对中国提升全球供应链韧性的作用显著大于已有的贸易协定。据此,积极签订和加入高标准贸易协定,构建一流的营商环境将成为增强中国供应链韧性的有效措施。本文为推进中国高水平对外开放,提升产业链供应链韧性提供了理论和经验借鉴。
Currently, the global economic recovery remains fragile, with frequent international economic and trade frictions, escalating geopolitical conflicts, increased uncertainty, and the US push for supply chain reshaping leading to the fragmentation of the global economy and trade. These factors pose a significant challenge to the resilience of global supply chains. The pressing question is: how to effectively improve the resilience level of global supply chains? This paper examines whether high-standard trade agreements can become a viable solution to managing global supply chain risks,considering China's implementation of the strategy of free trade areas. The paper, based on institutional environment channels, explores the impact of high-standard trade agreements on global supply chain resilience(GSCR), which consists of six sections. It starts with an introduction, and followed by an analysis of stylized facts. Section 3 constructs a theoretical model to elucidate the influence of the institutional environment on supply chain resilience. Section 4 assesses the impact of high-standard trade agreements on the institutional environment through structural estimation. Section 5uses quantitative analysis to examine the effect of high-standard trade agreements on GSCR through the institutional environment, and Section 6 concludes with policy implications. In the analysis of stylized facts, we employ survival analysis,linear models, and causal analysis to examine the effect of trade agreement depth on GSCR. Theoretical modeling involves constructing a dynamic contract model illustrating the relationship between institutional environment and supply chain resilience. Structural estimation and quantitative analysis entail developing a likelihood function, employing Bayesian estimation to determine structural parameters, and quantitatively assessing the impact of high-standard trade agreements on GSCR by using China as a case study. The main data utilized in this study are sourced from the global bilateral HS1996 6-digit inter
作者
沈国兵
沈彬朝
SHEN Guobing;SHEN Binchao(Institute of World Economy,Fudan University;School of Economics,Fudan University)
出处
《经济研究》
北大核心
2024年第5期151-169,共19页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA032)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790013)的资助。
关键词
高标准贸易协定
制度环境
贸易协定深度
供应链韧性
High-standard Trade Agreements
Institutional Environment
Trade Agreement Depth
Supply Chain Resil-ience
