摘要
为了进一步提高配电网规划中的中长期负荷预测的水平,提出了一种改进的灰色预测模型。通过对原始数据的特性分析,获得多个建模数据组,构建多个GM (1,1)模型,采用多个模型加权共同表征负荷数据的变化特性。对实际数据的建模结果证明该模型具有很好的预测精度。同时,与传统的灰色模型、线性和二次回归模型对比,模型具有最小的负荷预测误差,可以实现较为理想的预测效果。该研究可以有效改善电力系统规划中的负荷预测水平。
In order to further improve the level of medium and long term load forecasting in distribution network planning,an improved grey forecasting model was proposed.By analyzing the characteristics of the original data,multiple modeling data sets are obtained,and multiple GM(1,1)models are constructed,and the variation characteristics of load data are characterized jointly by multiple models.The modeling results of actual data show that the model has good prediction accuracy.At the same time,compared with the traditional grey model,linear regression model and quadratic regression model,the model has the smallest error of load forecasting,and can achieve a better forecasting effect.This research can effectively improve the level of load forecasting in power system planning.
作者
马阳阳
张建功
陈宇
徐阳阳
张泽逊
MA Yangyang;ZHANG Jiangong;CHEN Yu;XU Yangyang;ZHANG Zexun
出处
《青海电力》
2024年第2期48-52,64,共6页
Qinghai Electric Power
关键词
配电网
负荷预测
灰色模型
电力系统规则
distribution network
load forecasting
grey model
power system rules
