摘要
为研究气候变暖背景下热量资源变化对浙江甘蓝型冬油菜的影响,利用国家一级农业气象试验站浙江龙游站2000—2020年甘蓝型冬油菜生育期、产量及生长季内逐日气象资料,采用一元线性回归方程、Pearson相关系数、5 d滑动平均、3 a滑动平均等统计方法,分析多时空、多要素热量资源对浙江甘蓝型冬油菜生育期及产量的影响。结果表明,20 a来浙江省龙游县秋、冬、春三季平均气温呈明显上升趋势,其中冬季年际分布差异最大,并于2020年达到峰值。稳定通过10℃界限温度的初、终日表现均为提前,且持续日数呈显著性增加趋势,但最长、最短日在缩短;寒冷日数呈减少趋势,高温日数有所增加。20 a油菜现蕾期提前,其他生育期推迟,推迟最明显的为绿熟期,冬季现蕾期提前主要受1、2月气温影响。全生育期近年有所增加,成熟期明显提前,≥10℃活动积温增加。油菜实际产量和趋势产量均呈增加趋势,气候产量也呈增加趋势,但年际间波动较大。10月下旬—11月下旬(五真叶至成活期)气温呈升高趋势,且10月下旬平均气温与气候产量呈显著性正相关,有利于越冬前油菜苗稳健生长,促进子叶生长,形成壮苗。油菜越冬期内气温偏低、入春后气温偏高是影响油菜产量的主要气候因子。初终日提前,油菜适当晚播,有利于提高油菜苗期热量利用率,稳健壮苗,促进早现蕾、早抽薹,依靠壮茎和薹蕾夺取油菜高产丰收。
This study aims to investigate the impact of heat resource variations on winter Brassica napus under the background of climate warming.Daily meteorological data from 2000 to 2020,including the growth period and yield of Zhejiang winter B.napus,were collected from the national first-class agricultural meteorological experimental station of Zhejiang Longyou Station.Statistical analyses,such as simple linear regression equations,Pearson correlation coefficients,5-day moving averages,and 3-year moving averages were employed to assess the effects of multi-temporal and multi-element heat resources on the growth period and yield of winter B.napus in Zhejiang.The results revealed a clear upward trend in average temperatures in Longyou County,Zhejiang Province during autumn,winter,and spring over the past two decades,with the most significant inter-annual distribution difference observed in winter,reaching its peak in 2020.Additionally,the study found that the initial and final dates of stable through the 10℃threshold temperature were advanced,along with a significant increase in duration,and a reduction in the longest and shortest days.The budding period of rapeseed had been advanced over the past 20 years,while other growth periods had experienced delays,particularly the green ripening period.The study also highlighted the influence of temperatures in January and February on the early budding period in winter.Furthermore,the entire growth period had increased in recent years,with a significant advance in the maturation period and an increase in the accumulated temperature above 10℃.Both the actual and trend yields of rapeseed had exhibited an increasing trend,with climatic yield also showing an upward trajectory,but there were significant inter-annual fluctuations.The study identified a positive correlation between the average temperature in late October and the climatic yield,indicating favorable conditions for the robust growth of rapeseed seedlings before winter,as well as the promotion of cotyledon growth and th
作者
吴兴
肖晶晶
WU Xing;XIAO Jingjing(Longyou Meteorological Bureau,Quzhou,Zhejiang 324400;Zhejiang Provincial Climate Center,Hangzhou 310017)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2024年第13期83-90,共8页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
浙江省基础公益研究计划项目“气候变化背景下浙江省寒冷事件时空变化特征及其对农业生产的潜在影响研究”(LGF22D050007)。
关键词
热量资源
甘蓝型
冬油菜
生育期
产量
浙江
thermal resources
Brassica napus
winter rapeseed
growth period
yield
Zhejiang
