摘要
在我国土地财政的制度环境下,地方政府债务一方面促进了基础设施建设,推动了城镇化进程;另一方面也会影响土地市场供给,进而对房地产价格产生影响。理论模型发现,地方政府债务对房价的正向效应可以解构为直接效应和间接效应。实证研究验证:(1)地方政府债务扩张会导致房地产价格上涨;(2)土地利用效率能够通过调节效应削弱地方政府债务对房价的正向刺激;(3)在低数字经济水平、高土地财政依赖度的城市,地方政府债务对房价的正向刺激更显著,且土地利用效率对该刺激的负向调节效应更强。上述结论为加速我国地方政府债务置换、因地制宜提升土地利用效率,以及防范化解房地产风险提供了理论与经验支撑。
Over the past 20 years,the trend of real estate prices has shown complex and variable characteristics.Until before the COVID-19 pandemic,China’s real estate market had been in a state of“easy heat and difficult cooling”.Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that by the end of 2020,the average selling price of commercial housing nationwide had reached 10,030 yuan per square meter,an increase of 323%compared with the price of 2,359 yuan per square meter at the end of 2003.The price increase in first-tier cities such as Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen has exceeded tenfold.Against this background,it is necessary for us to trace the changes in real estate prices and explore the specific mechanisms behind their formation.After the global financial crisis in 2008,many studies have proposed factors influencing the high real estate prices in China,such as speculative demand,social interaction,and financial liberalization.The mainstream literature focusing on the supply side mainly revolves around the relationship between local government debt and housing prices.However,most existing studies primarily investigate the impact of real estate prices on the scale of local government debt rather than the causal relationship between them.Even the studies that do examine this relationship only focus on the overall effect of local government debt on housing prices.Local government debt is the primary source of the fiscal revenue for local governments under the fiscal decentralization system.Studying only its overall effect on real estate prices without exploring the influence of urban characteristics on this mechanism makes it difficult to provide more practical policy recommendations.Moreover,real estate risk and local government debt risk are two sides of the same coin in China’s systemic risks,representing the central axis of financial and fiscal linkage risks.Therefore,further tracing the correlation between the two and clarifying their mechanisms is essential to meet the requirements of the“guardin
作者
王维安
谢朱斌
陈梦涛
Wang Weian;Xie Zhubin;Chen Mengtao(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Finance,Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
北大核心
2024年第4期37-54,共18页
Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences
关键词
地方政府债务
土地利用效率
房价
数字经济水平
土地财政依赖度
local government debt
land use efficiency
housing prices
level of digital economy
dependence on land finance
