摘要
精准评估共同富裕伟大事业取得的阶段性成果,分析共同富裕的空间分布特征及发展趋势,识别共同富裕目标实现进程中的潜在风险,对于推动经济高质量发展具有重要意义。基于此,文章围绕共同富裕的深刻内涵,从总体富裕和共享发展两个维度构建共同富裕评价体系,分析评价共同富裕水平和时空演变特征。研究发现,共同富裕在空间上表现为自东至西逐渐降低的特征,两极化格局较明显,在时间上表现为随时间推移逐渐提升的趋势。从转移特征来看,在等级间转移时,共同富裕等级提升的概率明显大于等级下降的概率,等级间转移受周围地区空间溢出效应的影响。从收敛特征来看,共同富裕发展具有明显的收敛趋势,收敛速度和周期受周围地区空间溢出效应的影响。研究结果显示,中国共同富裕水平有望稳定在较高水准上。进一步比较发现,大多数省份的共同富裕与总体富裕之间协同性较强,但富裕程度有待进一步提升。本文认为,应加强先富对后富的带动作用,防范共同富裕水平下降的风险。
Accurately assessing the phased accomplishments of the great endeavor of common prosperity,scrutinizing the spatial distribution characteristics and developmental trends of common prosperity,identifying potential risks of decline in the process of achieving common prosperity goals,is of vital significance for driving highquality modernization.Consequently,centered on the profound connotations of common prosperity,an evaluation framework for common prosperity is constructed from the dimensions of overall afluence and shared development.This framework is employed to analyze and evaluate the level and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of common prosperity.The study reveals that common prosperity exhibits a gradual decrease from east to west spatially,with a prominent pattern of polarization,while demonstrating an upward trend over time.From the perspective of transferability,the probability of upward mobility in levels during the transfer of prosperity among regions is significantly greater than the probability of downward mobility.The probability of inter-level transfer is influenced by the spatial spillover effects of surrounding areas.Regarding convergence characteristics,the development of shared prosperity exhibits a distinct convergence trend,with the rate and period of convergence being influenced by the spatial spllover effects of neighboring regions.Overall,the findings suggest that China's level of common prosperity is expected to stabilize at a relatively high level.Furthermore,a comparative analysis reveals strong synergy between common prosperity and overall affluence in most provinces,yet the level of affluence requires further enhancement.It is imperative to strengthen the role of more developed regions in driving the development of less developed regions and to guard against the risk of declining levels of common prosperity.
作者
范方志
彭田田
Fan Fangzhi;Peng Tiantian
出处
《社会科学战线》
北大核心
2024年第5期89-100,281,282,共14页
Social Science Front
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(18BJY156)
济宁学院“百名卓越人才”支持计划培育项目(2023ZYRC31)。
