摘要
基于河南省1960—2020年117个气象站点的降水数据,采用GIS技术、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析、Kriging插值法对近61 a河南省的降水时空分布规律进行研究,并根据第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)预测河南省2025、2035年的降水情况。结果表明:1960—2020年河南省年降水量自北向南逐步递增,空间分布呈现出明显的纬度地带性规律,呈现出北少南多的特征;近61 a河南省年降水量第一主周期为55 a,降水周期为1971—2008年,降水具有周期时间长的特点;近61 a河南省降水量的时间变化趋势呈现出持续波动的状态,年降水量平均为584.7 mm;河南省1964、1985、2003年降水量明显增加,1993、1996、2002、2019年降水量呈下降趋势;河南省2025、2035年降水空间分布与过去61 a降水空间分布存在一定的相似性,各地降水量仍然存在由北向南递增的纬度地带性规律。
Based on precipitation data from 117 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1960 to 2020,GIS technology,Mann-Kendall test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and Kriging interpolation method were used to study the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of precipitation in Henan Province in the past 61 years.According to the Sixth Coupled Mode Comparison Plan(CMIP6),the precipitation situation in Henan Province in 2025 and 2035 was predicted.The results showed that the annual precipitation in Henan Province from 1960 to 2020 gradually increases from north to south,and the spatial distribution showed an obvious latitudinal zonality,showing the characteristics of"less in the north and more in the south".The first main cycle of the average annual precipitation in Henan Province in the past 61 years was 55 years,and the precipitation cycle was from 1971 to 2008,precipitation had the characteristic of long cycle time.The time variation trend of precipitation in Henan Province in recent 61 years showed continuous fluctuation,and the average precipitation was 584.7 mm.In Henan Province,precipitation increased significantly in 1964,1985 and 2003,and decreased in 1993,1996,2002 and 2019.The spatial distribution of precipitation in 2025 and 2035 in Henan Province was similar to that in the past 61 years,and there was still a latitudinal zonal law of increasing precipitation from north to south.
作者
董兆轩
DONG Zhao-xuan(School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo,Henan 454150)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2024年第11期190-194,200,共6页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0600404)。
关键词
降水量
时空特征
预测模型
GIS
河南省
Precipitation
Temporal and spatial characteristics
Prediction model
GIS
Henan Province
