摘要
耕地系统健康与“三位一体”的耕地保护目标密切相关,对于保障社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。以粮食主产区长江中下游地区为例,基于系统论和生态系统健康理论构建了耕地系统健康评估模型,综合运用Sen-MK趋势分析、景观格局指数、多尺度地理加权回归、GIS空间分析等方法量化了2000—2020年长江中下游地区耕地系统健康的时空演变,并揭示了自然和社会经济等多要素对耕地系统健康的影响。研究结果表明:(1)从时间维度看,2000—2020年间长江中下游地区的耕地系统健康总体上呈现轻微下降趋势,这与耕地系统的组织结构稳定性和韧性变差有关;从空间维度看,安徽北部、江苏北部和东部沿海区域的耕地系统健康状况持续向好,长江三角洲、湖南和江西南部耕地呈现出由差转好的态势,但江汉平原呈现出明显的恶化趋势。(2)自然环境变化和人类活动对耕地系统健康的影响具有显著的空间异质性。其中,地表温度、日照时数、相对湿度、降水变化对整个区域的耕地系统健康变化起负向作用,年均GDP变化和耕地空间密度变化对耕地系统健康表现出正向影响。本文所构建的耕地系统健康评估模型可为构建“三位一体”耕地保护绩效评估提供参考,对于完善耕地系统评估的理论研究和推动区域耕地健康管理具有重要意义。
The health of farmland system is closely related to the goal of"quantity-quality-ecology"in farmland protection,which is of great significance for ensuring sustainable development of the social economy.Therefore,this article takes the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,a major grain producing region,as an example.The farmland system health evaluation model based on system theory and ecosystem health theory is constructed.The spatiotemporal evolution of farmland system health in the study area from 2000 to 2020 is quantified using methods such as Sen-MK trend analysis,landscape pattern index,multi-scale geographic weighted regression,and GIS spatial analysis.Then,this research revealed the impact of multiple factors such as natural and socio-economic factors on the health of the farmland system.The research results indicate that:(1)From a temporal perspective,the overall health of the farmland system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 2000 to 2020 showed a slight downward trend,which is related to the deterioration of the organizational structure stability and resilience of the farmland system.From a spatial perspective,the health status of the farmland system in the Northern Anhui,Northern Jiangsu,and eastern coastal areas continues to improve.The farmland in the Yangtze River Delta,Hunan,and Southern Jiangxi shows a trend of turning from poor to good,but the Jianghan Plain shows a clear deterioration trend.(2)The impact of natural environmental changes and human activities on the health of the farmland system exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity.Among them,changes in surface temperature,sunshine hours,relative humidity,and annual precipitation have a negative impact on the health of the entire farmland system in the region,while changes in annual GDP and spatial density of farmland have a positive impact on the health of the farmland system.The farmland system health assessment model constructed by this research can provide reference for constructing a"quantity-quality-eco
作者
周小平
梁颖
李小天
柴铎
ZHOU Xiao-ping;LIANG Ying;LI Xiao-tian;CHAI Duo(School of Government Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Government Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期1174-1192,共19页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71974220)
北京师范大学博士生学科交叉基金项目(BNUXKJC2224)。
关键词
耕地系统健康
耕地保护
多尺度地理加权回归
长江中下游地区
farmland system health
farmland protection
multi scale geographic weighted regression
the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Region
