摘要
目的将多状态Markov模型应用于阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's disease,AD)自然史研究,为慢性病自然史研究提供方法学借鉴。方法基于美国公共数据库ADNI,构建正常认知(normal cognition,NC)-轻度认知障碍(mild cognitive impairment,MCI)-AD多状态Markov模型,估计不同状态间的转移强度、转移概率、影响因素和各状态的逗留时间,绘制生存曲线,并进行模型拟合优度评价。结果性别、年龄、FAQ、MMSE、CDRSB、ADAS13、TMT-B-Time是AD自然史中重要的影响因素;NC与MCI状态的平均逗留时间分别为7.502年,11.621年。多状态Markov模型拟合结果较好。结论多状态Markov模型在AD等多状态慢性病转归研究中具有很好的应用价值。
Objective The aim of this study was to explore the natural history of Alzheimer's disease(AD)based on the multi-state Markov model and to provide methodological reference for the chronic diseases.Methods Based on the American public database ADNI,we constructed a three states Markov model to estimate the transition intensity,transition probability,influencing factors and sojourn time of different states.Survival curves and goodness of fit was obtained.Results Gender,age,FAQ,MMSE,CDRSB,ADAS13 and TMT-B-Time were important influencing factors in the natural history of AD.The mean sojourn time of NC and MCI was 7.502 and 11.621 years,respectively.Model fit can be accepted.Conclusion Multi-state Markov model has a good application value for the outcome prediction of multi-state chronic diseases such as AD.
作者
秦瑶
韩红娟
刘龙
陈杜荣
王浩基
崔靖
白文琳
余红梅
Qin Yao;Han Hongjuan;Liu Long(Department of Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University(030001),Taiyuan)
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期227-230,234,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(81973154)
山西省应用基础研究计划青年项目(201801D221399)。
