摘要
针对既有交通模型主要对中长出行距离的机动化出行进行建模,缺乏对慢行交通行为建模,无法满足慢行示范区慢行需求预测。本文梳理了各种慢行交通方式的出行特征,将研究区域划分为低碳示范区内外两类空间单元,低碳示范区内空间单元细分为地块颗粒度,示范区外保持原交通小区颗粒度。基于北京综合交通大调查数据,采用多元回归和重力模型分别构建示范区内外的出行生成和分布模型。依据慢行距离转移曲线确定各慢行方式分担率,再利用logit模型得到剩余方式分担率,根据测试场景下慢行设施设置情况确定路网成本并采用CUBE软件进行示范区内慢行需求交通分配。对北京市东坝北西区远期慢行交通需求进行预测。结果表明,本文构建慢行交通模型框架可对示范区内慢行需求预测,模型结果可支撑区域内慢行设施有无对目的地的可达性分析,助力绿色低碳慢行示范区慢行交通规划建设。
The planning and construction of the green and low-carbon non-motorized traffic zone can motivate the green and low-carbon development of the city.The existing traffic model mainly focuses on modeling motorized travel behavior,while the non-motorized traffic behavior can t be captured.This can t meet the requirements of non-motorized traffic demand prediction.In this paper,we firstly analyzed the non-motorized traffic pattern and refined the spatial analysis zones by dividing traffic analysis zones into land plots within the non-motorized traffic zone.Secondly,we developed travel demand production and distribution using Multiple Linear Regression and Gravity model base on Beijing comprehensive traffic survey dataset.Non-motorized and motor traffic modal split can be set according to modal split cure and Logit Model respectively.Thirdly,transport assignment can be conducted based on CUBE according to transport network setting.Finally,we take the Dongba,a western region in Chaoyang District in Beijing,as an example.The long-term non-motorized characteristics of the study area are conducted.The results indicate the framework of non-motorized traffic model can predict the traffic demand and analyze the accessibility of non-motorized facilities,which supports the planning and construction of non-motorized traffic demonstration area.
作者
张政
焦咏欣
靳瑾
金山
宣晶
刘昊
张鑫
黄斌
ZHANG Zheng;JIAO Yongxin;JIN Jin;JIN Shan;XUAN Jing;LIU hao;ZHANG Xin;HUANG Bin(Beijing Municipal Institute of City Planning and Design,Beijing 100045,China;BII Transit Systems(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China;Beijing Jingtou Xingchao Land Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100018,China;Beijing infrastructure investment Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《交通工程》
2024年第5期98-105,共8页
Journal of Transportation Engineering
基金
2022年科技攻关“揭榜挂帅”项目(2022-JB02)。
关键词
交通需求模型
慢行出行特征
慢行交通模型
四阶段法
transport demand model
non-motorized travel characteristics
non-motorized traffic model
“four-step”method
