摘要
在牲畜环境污染这一巨大挑战下,畜牧业绿色循环发展面临重重阻碍。基于温室气体减排的逻辑框架,分析畜牧业碳排放估算及影响因素,对推进畜牧业绿色低碳发展、加快实现“双碳”目标具有重要现实意义。本文利用碳排放系数法测算内蒙古1990—2022年畜牧业碳排放量,并借助环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)模型与可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型分析内蒙古畜牧业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:(1)内蒙古畜牧业碳排放量从1990—2022年整体呈波动上升趋势,碳排放强度整体波动下降,碳排放结构变化中牲畜肠道发酵环节占总碳排放的比例为82.40%,远高于粪便管理环节,其中反刍动物牛、绵羊和山羊的贡献度最高。(2)观测期内,内蒙古畜牧业碳排放与经济发展水平的关系形态为“N”型。(3)畜牧业从业人数、畜牧业人均产值、碳排放强度以及消费因素与畜牧业碳排放呈显著正相关,畜牧业人均产值的促进作用最为明显,而城镇化率会显著减少畜牧业碳排放。基于以上研究结果,提出调整养畜结构、提高养畜绿色化技术水平和强化农牧民低碳环保意识等建议。
Under enormous challenge of livestock environmental issues,the green circular development of animal husbandry faces numerous obstacles.Based on the logical framework of greenhouse gas emissions reduction,analyzing the calculation and influencing factors of carbon emissions in animal husbandry has great practical significance for promoting green and low-carbon development of animal husbandry and accelerating the achievement of the“dual carbon”goals.This article used the carbon emission coefficient method to calculate the carbon emissions of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2022,and analyzed the influencing factors of animal husbandry carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia using the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)model and the Scalable Stochastic Environmental Impact Assessment(STIRPAT)model.The results showed that:(1)The carbon emissions of animal husbandry industry in Inner Mongolia showed an overall fluctuating upward trend from 1990 to 2022,while the carbon emission intensity fluctuated downward.In the change of carbon emission structure,the proportion of livestock intestinal fermentation to total carbon emissions was 82.40%,much higher than that of fecal management,with ruminant animals such as cattle,sheep,and goats contributing the most.(2)During the observation period,the relationship between animal husbandry carbon emissions in Inner Mongolia and the level of economic development showed an N-shaped pattern.(3)The number of people engaged in animal husbandry,per capita output value of animal husbandry,carbon emission intensity,and consumption factors had significant positive correlations with carbon emissions in animal husbandry.The promotion effect of per capita output value of animal husbandry was most obvious.While urbanization rate significantly reduced carbon emissions in animal husbandry.Based on the above research results,suggestions were proposed to adjust the structure of animal husbandry,improve the level of green technology for animal husbandry,and strengthen the low-carbon enviro
作者
孙新
杜富林
SUN Xin;DU Fulin(College of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot010010,China)
出处
《现代农业》
2024年第2期44-52,共9页
Modern Agriculture
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2021MS07007)。
关键词
内蒙古
畜牧业
碳排放估算
影响因素
Inner Mongolia
animal husbandry
carbon emission estimation
influencing factors
