摘要
我国水资源、能源和粮食消费总量均居世界首位,且呈持续增长态势,生态系统压力较大,如何实现水-能源-粮食-生态系统之间的协调发展是未来社会发展的重要议题。通过构建水-能源-粮食-生态系统综合评价体系,利用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关、重心和标准差椭圆与地理探测器等方法,探究2006—2021年30个省份耦合协调度时空特征、演变格局与驱动因素。结果显示:第一,各省份水-能源-粮食-生态系统综合发展水平呈平稳上升趋势,但区域发展不均衡,中部地区发展水平最高;第二,水-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度逐年提升,但仍处于较低水平,耦合协调度向高值集聚,省际差距缩小;第三,水-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度存在空间正相关效应,高值和低值集聚极化效应显著,耦合协调度重心在河南,且逐渐向西南方向转移,东部重心向南迁移,分散态势增强,中部重心向西北迁移,集聚态势凸显,西部重心向西北方向迁移,集聚明显,极化效应突出;第四,城市化水平、产业结构和固定资产投资对系统耦合协调度发展的解释作用增强,影响因子交互作用大于因子独立作用。
The total consumption of water resources,energy and food in China ranks first in the world and is showing a continuous growth trend.The ecosystem is under great pressure,and how to achieve coordinated development between water,energy,food and ecosystem is an important practical issue.By constructing a comprehensive evaluation system for water-energy-food-ecosystem,and using methods such as coupling coordination degree model,spatial autocorrelation,center of gravity and standard deviation ellipse,and geographic detector,this study explores the spatio-temporal characteristics,evolution pattern,and driving factors of coupling coordination degree in 30 provinces and cities from 2006 to 2021.The results are as follows.Firstly,the comprehensive development level of water energy food ecosystem in each province and city shows a steady upward trend,with uneven regional development,and the highest development level in the central region.Secondly,the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food-ecosystem has been increasing year by year,but it is still at a relatively low level,with the coupling coordination degree converging towards high values and the inter provincial gap narrowing.Thirdly,there is a spatial positive correlation effect in the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food-ecosystem,with significant agglomeration polarization effects at high and low values.The center of gravity of coupling coordination is gradually shifting to the southwest in Henan;The eastern center of gravity is shifting southward,and the dispersion trend is increasing;The center of gravity in the central region is shifting towards the northwest,with a prominent agglomeration trend;The center of gravity in the western region is shifting towards the northwest direction,with obvious agglomeration and prominent polarization effect.Forthly,the level of urbanization,industrial structure and fixed assets investment have enhanced their role in explaining the development of system coupling and coordination,and the interaction value of i
作者
崔草草
王韵
王文彬
CUI Caocao;WANG Yun;WANG Wenbin(School of Management and Economics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（社会科学版）》
2024年第4期12-26,共15页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY062)
河南省软科学重点项目(222400410010)
河南省软科学研究计划项目(222400410160)
河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2022BJJ065)。
关键词
可持续发展
水-能源-粮食-生态
耦合协调
时空格局
地理探测器
sustainable development
water-energy-food-ecology
coupling coordination
spatio-temporal pattern
geographic detector
