摘要
在当今的全球经济环境中,银行业面临着诸多挑战。其中,经济政策的不确定性以及投资者情绪的波动,对银行业的稳定和发展产生了深远的影响。文章利用CoVaR模型,对2008—2022年间22家具有行业代表性的上市银行系统性金融风险进行了测度。通过构建回归模型,深入研究了在经济政策不确定性的背景下,投资者情绪如何影响银行的系统性金融风险的变化。研究表明:经济政策不确定性能显著增强银行系统性金融风险;并且投资者情绪在这一过程中发挥了明显的中介作用。据此,提出了应对策略,包括正确处理经济政策不确定性与银行系统性金融风险的关系,投资者应保持理性投资和建立公开透明的信息体系。
In today's global economic environment,the banking industry faces many challenges.The uncertainty of economic policies and fluctuations in investor sentiment have had a profound impact on the stability and development of banking industry.This article uses CoVaR model to measure the systemic financial risks of 22 representative listed banks from 2008 to 2022.By constructing a regression model,the paper conducts an in-depth study on how investor sentiment affects the systemic financial risks of banks in the context of economic policy uncertainty.Research shows that economic policy uncertainty significantly enhances systemic financial risks in banks,and investor sentiment plays a significant mediating role in this process.Based on this,corresponding strategies have been proposed,including correctly handling the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and systemic financial risks in banks.Investors should maintain rational investment and establish an open and transparent information system.
作者
蒋鹏
JIANG Peng(School of Economics,Wuhan Textile University,Wuhan 430200,China)
出处
《商业观察》
2024年第15期71-75,共5页
BUSINESS OBSERVATION
