摘要
基于2010-2020年中国家庭追踪调查和国家统计年鉴数据,运用队列双重差分模型考察中国高等教育扩张对高校毕业生未来就业状况的影响。研究发现,从职业生涯中后期看,高等教育扩张对毕业生就业产生的效应具有两面性:一方面扩张在数量上显著促进高校毕业生充分就业,另一方面扩张水平对就业质量呈现出U型曲线关系,即先有抑制后有促进之效;扩张下的高等教育内部学历层次结构和专业结构分化给毕业生就业状况带来的差异凸显;这一长期就业效应存在明显的性别、城乡和地区异质性;并且受到城镇化水平、人均GDP和第三产业发展等社会经济因素的显著调节。据之,政策建议包括:坚定高等教育人力资本投资战略,走“有质量地扩张”之路;强化就业优先政策的同时,注重各项政策的协调性,努力构建学生从学校教育到劳动力市场的育人全过程增值评价跟踪监测体系;进一步筑好有利于实现高校毕业生高质量充分就业的环境基础。
Based on the data provided by the Chinese Family Panel Studies(CFPS)and the National Statistical Yearbook from 2010 to 2020,this paper empirically studies the impact of Chinese higher education expansion on college/university graduates future employment by using a birth cohort DID model.It is found that,from the perspective of middle and later career,the expansion of higher education on the employment of graduates has two sides.On the hand,the expansion can significantly promote the full employment of college/university graduates in term of quantity;on the other hand,the expansion level has a U-shaped curve relationship with the employment quality,that is,an inhibition effect first and promotion effect later.The differentiation of academic degree structure and professional structure in higher education under the expansion of higher education has brought significant differences to the graduates'employment.This long-term employment effect generated by higher education expansion has significant gender,urban-rural and regional heterogeneity.The effects are positively regulated by socioeconomic factors such as urbanization level,per capita CDP and tertiary industry development.Our findings have important policy implications:we must firmly adhere to the strategy of human capital investment in higher education and take the road of"quality expansion";while strengthening the employment-first policy,we should pay attention to the coordination of various policies and strive to build a value-added evaluation and tracking monitoring system for the whole process of education from"school education to labor market";further build a sound environmental foundation for the realization of high-quality and full employment of college graduates.
作者
吴颖
李西顺
WU Ying;LI Xishun(School of Educational Science,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241000;School of Education,Soochow University,Suzhou 215123)
出处
《教育发展研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2024年第7期72-84,共13页
Research in Educational Development
基金
国家社会科学基金教育学重点课题“高等教育普及化阶段毕业生就业政策研究”(AIA220017)的部分成果。
关键词
高等教育扩张
高校毕业生
就业质量
高质量充分就业
higher education expansion
college/university graduates
employment quality
high-quality and full employment
