摘要
种植业产品是保障我国食物安全的关键,种植业的发展支撑了我国由“吃得饱”到“吃得好”的历史性转变,促进了居民膳食质量的逐步提升;新时期我国种植业发展面临资源环境压力、极端气候冲击以及国际地缘政治格局不稳等内外部风险因素的挑战,亟需探讨可行性发展战略以确保食物安全。通过对2035年、2050年种植业食物供需形势预测后得出,未来我国粮食净进口主要集中在大豆和玉米,油菜籽和糖的自给水平将继续下降,花生和水果的自给水平将先降后升,蔬菜始终保持自给有余的态势。基于此,本文梳理了新时期保障我国食物安全面临的挑战,提出了新时期种植业保障我国食物安全的战略构想,主要包括采取种植业产品生产能力提升和结构优化、资源高效利用与低碳生产推进、消费结构引导与健康观念培育、农业科技创新与装备支撑、新型经营主体创新等战略举措,实施种植业科技创新、种植业产品质量提升、种植业生态保护、蛋白替代等重大工程。研究建议,坚持“口粮绝对安全、谷物基本自给”总体战略,分区域制定产业发展优先序,加快补齐农业基础设施与科技短板,健全重大危机应对战略体系,以此增强种植业发展水平,切实保障我国食物安全。
The planting industry is crucial in ensuring food security in China.The development of the planting industry has underpinned the country’s historic transition from merely achieving food sufficiency to enjoying high-quality diets,consequently promoting the gradual improvement of dietary quality among residents.In the new era,the development of the Chinese planting industry faces challenges from internal and external risk factors,such as resource environment pressure,extreme climate impacts,and unstable international geopolitical situations.This study predicts the food supply and demand situations in 2035 and 2050.Results show that net imports of grain in China will mainly focus on soybeans and corn,while the self-sufficiency rate of rapeseed and sugar will continue to decline,the self-sufficient rate of peanuts and fruits will rise after declining first,and the vegetables will be more than self-sufficient.Thus,this study provides an overview and summary of the challenges faced by China’s planting industry regarding food security and proposes strategic ideas and policy recommendations for ensuring food security in the new era.These recommendations include improving the planting industry’s production capacity and structure,promoting low-carbon production and the efficient use of resources,optimizing residents’consumption structure and health concepts,encouraging agricultural technology innovation and equipment development,and innovating new business entities.Major projects regarding technology innovation,quality improvement,ecological protection,and protein substitution are also proposed.Furthermore,we suggest adhering to the overall strategy of“ensuring basic self-sufficiency of grain and absolute security of staple food”,clarifying the industry development priorities by regions,improving the agricultural infrastructure and technology shortcomings,and perfecting the strategic system for responding to major crises,thereby enhancing the level of agricultural development and effectively ensuring food secur
作者
韩昕儒
王秀东
王济民
袁龙江
梅旭荣
吴孔明
Han Xinru;Wang Xiudong;Wang Jimin;Yuan Longjiang;Mei Xurong;Wu Kongming(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Strategic Studies,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Institute of Agricultural Development Strategies,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Food and Nutrition Development,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《中国工程科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期92-102,共11页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“新形势下国家食物安全战略研究”(2021-XBZD-08)。
关键词
种植业
食物安全
供求预测
粮食供给保障
planting industry
food security strategy
supply and demand forecast
ensuring grain supply
