摘要
目的了解我国淋病近年流行趋势与时空分布特征,为我国淋病的精准防控提供参考依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统收集2018一2023年全国(不含港澳台地区)各县区淋病病例报告数据,使用Joinpoint回归模型分析我国淋病报告发病率趋势。采用全局空间自相关中的Moran指数、全局G系数与局部空间自相关分析探索淋病在县区层面的聚集模式及热点地区,通过时空扫描分析中的Poisson分布模型识别淋病聚集区。结果果2018—2023年我国淋病的报告发病率由9.59/10万下降到7.35/10万,年均变化百分比为-4.9%,发病率下降趋势无统计学意义(P=0.11)。全国各县区淋病报告发病率呈显著的空间正自相关,Moran指数在0.39~0.60之间(P<0.001);全局G系数检验统计量Z(G)均>1.96,表明淋病疫情呈现高值聚集模式。局部空间自相关结果显示,热点地区主要分布在我国东南沿海和西南地区。时空扫描共识别出70个聚集区,主要分布在东南沿海和西南地区。结论近6年我国淋病报告发病率总体上呈波动下降;全国淋病在县区层面有显著的时空聚集特点,热点地区和时空聚集区基本一致,主要分布于东南沿海和西南地区,需进一步调查其成因并采取精准的防控措施.
Objective To investigate the recent epidemic trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of gonorrhea in China,and to provide a reference for precise prevention and control of gonorrhea.Methods Data on reported cases of gonorrhea in China(not including Hongkong,Macao and Taiwan regions of China)were collected from the Infectious Diseases Surveillance System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System from 2018 to 2023.The trends in reported incidence rates of gonorrhea in China were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis with the Moran's index and global G-statistic,as well as local spatial autocorrelation analysis,were employed to explore the clustering patterns and hotspot regions of gonorrhea at the county level.In the spatiotemporal scanning analysis,a Poisson distribution model was employed to identify clusters of gonorrhea cases.Results The reported incidence rates of gonorrhea in China decreased from 9.59 per 100000 in 2018 to 7.35 per 100000 in 2023,with an average annual percent change of-4.9%,but this decreasing trend was not statistically significant(P=O.11).The reported incidence rates of gonorrhea at the county level in China exhibited a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation,with the global Moran's indices ranging from 0.39 to 0.60(all P<0.001);the Getis-Ord general G test statistic Z(C)values were all greater than 1.96,indicating a high-value clustering pattern of gonorrhea cases.The local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that hotspot regions were predominantly distributed in southeastern coastal areas and southwestern China.A total of 70 clusters were identified through the spatiotemporal scanning analysis,and mainly located in southeastern coastal areas and southwestern China.Conclusions In recent 6 years,the overall reported incidence rates of gonorrhea in China showed a fluctuating decline;there was a significant spatiotemporal clustering characteristic with regard to gonorrhea epidemic at the county
作者
卢文杰
梁诗晴
岳晓丽
李婧
张家晖
龚向东
Lu Wenjie;Liang Shiqing;Yue Xiaoli;Li Jing;Zhang Jiahui;Gong Xiangdong(School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,China;Hospital of Dermatology,Chinese Acodemy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College,Division of Sexually Transmitted Disease Epidemiology,National Center for STD Control of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210042,China)
出处
《中华皮肤科杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第5期445-449,共5页
Chinese Journal of Dermatology
基金
中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程项目(CIFMS-2021-I2M-1-001)。
关键词
淋病
发病率
趋势
时空聚类分析
时空分析
Gonorrhea
Incidence
Trend
Space-time clustering
Spatiotemporal analysis
