摘要
针对中小流域目前径流和淹没预报难度较大且精度偏低的问题,以北江流域为研究对象,构建降雨径流-洪水淹没模型。在非耦合情况下,基于WRF-Hydro模式构建北江流域水文模型,通过对主要参数率定,优化了WRF-Hydro水文模型,模拟了流域的产流、汇流等水循环关键要素。在耦合情况下,将WRF-Hydro模式模拟的径流过程作为CaMa-Flood模型的边界条件,从而实现对整个流域的洪水淹没模拟。研究结果表明:在经过参数率定的WRF-Hydro水文模型中,针对验证期的5场典型洪水事件,皮尔逊相关系数均高于0.8,纳什效率系数在0.52~0.71,在预报期的三个洪水事件中,洪峰的平均误差为22.2%。在水文水动力模型耦合后,能够准确地捕捉洪水淹没与降雨强度、洪水流量变化之间的关系,进而提供洪水发生后洪泛区的淹没深度和范围等关键信息。本文构建的降雨径流-洪水淹没模型能够适用于地形复杂、降雨时空分布不均匀的北江流域,为类似半湿润流域的洪水预报提供了有益参考,同时也为水文水动力模型耦合的研究奠定了基础。
In light of the existing challenges in forecasting runoff and inundation with limited accuracy within small to medium-sized river basins,taking Beijiang River basin serves as the subject of investigation,a model for predicting rainfall-runoff and flood inundation was constructed.Under non-coupled conditions,the hydrological model for the Beijiang River basin was developed using the WRF-Hydro model.Through parameter calibration,the WRF-Hydro hydrological model was optimized,key water cycle components such as runoff generation and confluence within the basin was simulated.Under the coupled scenario,the runoff simulations generated by the WRF-Hydro model were utilized as input for the CaMa-Flood model,the simulation of flood inundation across the entirety of the basin was enablied.Research findings indicate that within the parameter-calibrated WRF-Hydro hydrological model,the Pearson correlation coefficient surpasses 0.8 for five representative flood events during the validation period.The Nash efficiency coefficient falls within the range of 0.52 to 0.71.For three flood events during the forecast period,the average error in predicting flood peaks amounts to 22.2%.Through the coupling of hydrological and hydrodynamic models,the intricate relationship between flood inundation,rainfall intensity,and fluctuations in flood discharge is accurately captured.This,in turn,provides crucial insights into the depth and extent of floodplain inundation following a flood event.The rainfall-runoff flood inundation model developed through this study finds applicability in regions such as the Beijiang River basin,characterized by complex topography and uneven spatiotemporal rainfall distribution.It offers valuable reference for flood prediction in analogous semi-humid basins while also laying a robust foundation for the exploration of coupled hydro-hydrodynamic models.
作者
韩赟希
张昕
王自法
周良辰
朱龙祥
HAN Yun-xi;ZHANG Xin;WANG Zi-fa;ZHOU Liang-chen;ZHU Long-xiang(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,China;Shenzhen Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Shenzhen 518003,China;CEAKJ(Guangdong)Academy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,Shaoguan 512026,China;Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2024年第11期4397-4408,共12页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
深圳市科技计划(JCYJ20220818103215031)
韶关市“南岭团队计划”项目(220216107220295)。
