摘要
撤县设区是我国推进新型城镇化建设的重要行政区划调整政策。但2021年以来,国家多次表态要严控撤县设区。将撤县设区政策视为准自然实验,基于2000—2019年县域经济社会数据,运用多期DID、PSM-DID、CMP模型、中介效应模型等分析了撤县设区政策对粮食生产和粮食安全的影响及作用机制,从粮食安全视角对国家严控撤县设区的合理性进行了论证。研究发现:首先,撤县设区政策不利于粮食生产和粮食安全,这一结论在更换回归模型、更换被解释变量、调整样本量等检验后仍然稳健,而且这种负面影响存在长期性;其次,撤县设区政策通过农业生产要素重新配置和“政府注意力”转移两个方面对粮食安全产生负面影响;最后,这种负面影响还存在地区异质性,撤县设区对非粮食生产核心区的负面影响更加显著,导致粮食安全责任进一步失衡。建议谨慎推进撤县设区,平衡不同省份粮食安全责任,有序推进县域粮食综合生产能力提升。
Transforming county into district is an important administrative division adjustment policy for promoting the construction of new urbanization in China.But since 2021,China has repeatedly stated that transforming county into district should be strictly controlled.With transforming county into district as a natural quasi experiment and based on the county-level economic and social data from 2000 to 2019,this study analyzes the impact and action mechanism of the policy of transforming county into district on food production and food security by using multi-phase DID,PSM-DID,CMP model and mediating effect model,and demonstrates the rationality of China strictly controlling transforming county into district from the perspective of food security.It is found that firstly,the policy of transforming county into district is not conducive to food production and food security,and this conclusion is still robust when the regression model and explanatory variables are changed and the sample size is adjusted,with this negative impact existing in the long term;secondly,the policy of transforming county into district has a negative impact on food security through the reconfiguration of agricultural production factors and the shift of“government attention”;and finally,regional heterogeneity exists in this negative impact,and transforming county into district has a more significant negative impact on non-grain production core areas,leading to a further imbalance in food security responsibility.It is recommended to cautiously promote transforming county into district,balance the responsibility of different provinces for food security,and orderly promote the improvement of comprehensive grain production capacity in counties.
作者
鲍曙光
陈亚平
张海鹏
BAO Shuguang;CHEN Yaping;ZHANG Haipeng(Institute of Rural Development,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Educational,Scientific and Cultural Research Center,Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences,Beijing 100142,China)
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2024年第3期29-41,共13页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
2022年国家统计局重大统计专项“新时代的农民工市民化问题研究”(2022ZX05)。
关键词
撤县设区
粮食安全
粮食生产
多期DID
中介效应模型
transforming county into district
food security
grain production
multi-phase DID
mediating effect model
