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大国与中亚国家间“C5+1”对话机制的发展现状、动因与前景

The Present Situation,Motivation and Prospect of the"C5+1"Dialogue Mechanism Between Great Powers and Central Asian Countries
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摘要 “C5+1”机制在近些年来成为中、美、俄、欧、印等大国介入中亚事务的主要借助手段,突出表现为参与大国日益增多和对话层级不断提升。大国近年来之所以重视以“C5+1”机制介入中亚事务,主要是因为大国在中亚利益的整体性和有限性、中亚区域合作取得新进展等原因,但根本原因在于中亚地区大国竞争的加剧。“C5+1”机制在近年来的兴盛,对中国的中亚外交具有双重影响。展望未来,大国的意愿仍将是决定“C5+1”机制存续与发展的关键要素,同时不同大国参与下的“C5+1”间既有竞争又有合作的基本关系面在较长时间内不会改变,以及阿富汗有可能成为“C5+1”的成员国,扩展为“C6+1”。这些对中国来说既是机遇也是挑战,中国应着力提高“C5+1”机制下与中亚国家间的务实合作水平,同时也应密切关注其他大国“C5+1”机制的进展,取长补短,推动中国对中亚外交行稳致远。 In recent years,the"C5+1"mechanism has become the main means for China,the United States,Russia,Europe,India and other major powers to intervene in Central Asian affairs,which is prominently manifested by the increasing number of participating powers and the continuous upgrading of the level of dialogue.Over the past years,the great powers have attached great importance to intervening in the affairs of Central Asia through"C5+1"mechanism mainly due to the integrity and limitation of their interests in Central Asia and the new progress made in regional cooperation in Central Asia.However,the fundamental reason lies in the intensified competition among major powers in Central Asia.The prosperity of the"C5+1"mechanism in recent years has made a dual impact on China's diplomacy in Central Asia.Looking ahead to the future,we may find that the will of the great powers will remain the key factor in determining the survival and development of the"C5+1"mechanism.At the same time,with the participation of different big powers,the basic relations of"C5+1"featuring both competition and cooperation will not change for a long time,and Afghanistan is likely to become a member of the"C5+1",thus expanding to"C6+1".All this poses both opportunities and challenges for China.China should strive to improve its practical cooperation with Central Asian countries under the"C5+1"mechanism and pay close attention to the development of the"C5+1"mechanism with other major powers to promote the steady and sustained development of China's diplomacy towards Central Asia.
作者 邓辀 DENG Zhou(School of International Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100876)
出处 《新疆大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第3期78-85,共8页 Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
关键词 大国 中亚五国 “C5+1” 区域合作 Great powers Central Asia countries "C5+1" Regional
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