摘要
为了探究安徽省气候变化和人类活动对草地物候的影响,并且量化气候变化和人类活动对物候的贡献率,本研究基于2003—2020年安徽省归一化植被指数数据集提取草地物候——返青期(SOS)、枯黄期(EOS),采用slope趋势分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验与Hurst指数分析物候的时空变化特征及未来演变趋势,并结合年均气温、年降水量数据集,采用相关性分析和残差分析探讨气候变化和人类活动对物候的响应,并量化二者的贡献率。结果表明:2003—2020年,研究区SOS和EOS都表现为提前趋势,提前速率分别为0.8和0.7 d·a^(-1)。研究区南部SOS明显早于中部和北部地区;EOS从南向北逐渐提前。未来SOS和EOS都表现出提前趋势。SOS与年均气温主要表现为负相关性,与年降水量主要表现为正相关性;EOS与年均气温和年降水量都表现为负相关性。SOS由气候变化和人类活动共同驱动提前的区域面积占比为56.9%,EOS由气候变化和人类活动共同驱动提前的区域面积占比为48.3%,其中,人类活动是物候的主要驱动因素,气候变化为次要驱动因素。人类活动和气候变化对SOS的相对贡献率分别为66.4%和33.6%,对EOS的相对贡献率分别为61.2%和38.8%。人类活动对SOS和EOS的影响更强,主要导致SOS和EOS提前。
To explore the influence of climate change and human activities on grassland phenology in Anhui Province,and quantify the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to phenology,we extracted the phenology of grassland,including the start of growing season(SOS)and the end of growing season(EOS),based on the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)dataset of Anhui Province from 2003 to 2020.The temporal and spatial characteristics and future evolution trends of phenological changes were analyzed using slope trend analysis,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test,and Hurst index.We further conducted correlation analysis and residual analysis based on the datasets of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation to explore the responses of phenology to climate change and human activities,and quantify their contribution rate.The results showed that SOS and EOS showed an advancing trend with a rate of 0.8 and 0.7 days per year from 2003 to 2020.SOS in the southern part of the study area was significantly earlier than in the central and northern regions,while EOS gradually advanced from south to north.Both SOS and EOS in the future showed an advancing trend.SOS was negatively correlated with annual average temperature,while positively correlated with annual precipitation.EOS was negatively correlated with both annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The proportion of the area where SOS was advanced driven by both climate change and human activities was 56.9%,and the value was 48.3% for E0S.Human activities were the main driving factor for phenology,and climate change was the secondary driving factor.The relative contributions of human activities and climate change to SOS were 66.4% and 33.6%,and to EOS were 61.2% and 38.8%,respectively.Human activities had stronger impact on SOS and EOS than climate change,resulting in earlier phenology.
作者
龚志远
王春林
董丹丹
张蕊
张曦
GONG Zhiyuan;WANG Chunlin;DONG Dandan;ZHANG Rui;ZHANG Xi(Anhui&Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Hefei 230088,China)
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第4期1092-1100,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(106165314018)资助。
关键词
物候
气候变化
人类活动
残差分析
安徽省
phenology
climate change
human activity
residual analysis
Anhui Province
